AI Match Analysis & Predictions

Italy. Serie ASunday, September 14, 2025 at 6:45 PM UTC18:45
MIL

Milan

Win Probability: 51%
Sunday, September 14, 2025 at 6:45 PM UTC
2-1
AI Prediction
Milan Win
High confidence
BOL

Bologna 1909

Win Probability: 24%
Head-to-Head Statistics
Milan Wins
N/A
Draws
N/A
Bologna 1909 Wins
N/A
Predictions
Match ResultMilan Win
Medium1.969
Correct Score2-1
Low8.0
Both Teams To ScoreYes
Medium1.75
Total GoalsOver 2.5 Goals
Medium1.97
AI Match Analysis

This Serie A clash pits a Milan side seeking consistency against a Bologna team navigating a significant injury crisis. Milan, despite a mixed start of one win and one loss, holds a substantial home advantage and a historically dominant record over Bologna, having won 21 of their last 33 meetings. [3] However, their recent home defeat to Cremonese raises questions about their current stability. [12] Bologna's challenges are far more severe. The visitors will be without their primary goalscorer, Ciro Immobile, and starting central defender Nicolò Casale, both of whom were injured in their opening day loss to Roma. [25] These absences fundamentally weaken the team at both ends of the pitch. While they managed a 1-0 win against Como in their last outing, facing Milan at the San Siro is a different proposition entirely. [24] From a tactical perspective, Milan is expected to dominate possession and create the majority of chances. The key will be converting this pressure into goals, a task made slightly more difficult by a minor injury concern for Rafael Leão. [16] For Bologna, the game plan will almost certainly revolve around defensive solidity and attempting to capitalize on counter-attacking opportunities. The odds reflect Milan's status as favorites, and while an upset is unlikely given Bologna's depleted squad, the hosts' own vulnerabilities suggest they may not keep a clean sheet. This leads to the prediction of a 2-1 home victory, with both teams finding the back of the net.

Key Betting Insights

Value Bets
  • Both Teams to Score (BTTS) - Yes: The odds of 1.75 seem reasonable. Despite Bologna's injuries, Milan's defense has not been impenetrable, and Bologna may find a goal. Head-to-head history shows BTTS landing in 55% of previous encounters. [3]
Risky Bets
  • Bologna 1909 to win: With odds at 4.225, a win for the visitors is a long shot, especially given their severe injury list. However, considering Milan's own shaky start and recent home loss, an upset isn't entirely impossible for those seeking high returns.
Milan Overview

AC Milan has had a mixed start to the Serie A season, with one win and one loss in their first two matches. [10, 31] Their home form has been surprisingly poor with a loss in their only home game, while they secured a victory on the road. [10] The team sits in the middle of the league table. [31] Historically, Milan has a dominant head-to-head record against Bologna, winning 21 of the previous 33 encounters. [3]

Tactical Notes

Milan will likely look to control possession and leverage their attacking talent. However, recent results, including a home loss to Cremonese, suggest potential vulnerabilities. [12] The absence of key attacker Rafael Leão due to a calf injury could impact their offensive potency, placing more responsibility on players like Christian Pulisic and new signing Santiago Giménez.

Key Players

Mike MaignanChristian PulisicLuka ModrićYoussouf Fofana

Injuries

Ardon JashariBroken fibula, expected return late October 2025
Rafael LeãoCalf injury, expected return early September 2025
Bologna 1909 Overview

Bologna also enters this match with one win and one loss in their first two Serie A fixtures, mirroring Milan's start. [24, 31] They suffered a 1-0 defeat away to Roma before securing a 1-0 victory at home against Como. [24] The team is currently dealing with a significant injury crisis, most notably the long-term absence of star striker Ciro Immobile. [25]

Tactical Notes

Bologna will be significantly hampered by injuries, especially in attack with Ciro Immobile sidelined. This will likely force them into a more defensive posture, aiming to stay compact and hit on the counter-attack. Young forward Santiago Castro will be expected to lead the line. Their defensive resolve will be tested, as they will also be missing starting center-back Nicolò Casale. [25]

Key Players

Riccardo OrsoliniLewis FergusonRemo FreulerSantiago Castro

Injuries

Ciro ImmobileRight rectus femoris lesion, out for approximately two months
Nicolò CasaleLow-grade hamstring strain, out for three to four weeks
Ibrahim SulemanaKnee injury, expected return mid-October 2025
Tommaso PobegaThigh injury, out for approximately three weeks
Last 5 Matches - Milan

No recent form data available.

Last 5 Matches - Bologna 1909

No recent form data available.

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