AI Match Analysis & Predictions
Alanyaspor
Fatih Karagumruk
Alanyaspor hosts Fatih Karagumruk in a clash where recent form and league position tell a compelling story. Alanyaspor, positioned 10th, has become the Süper Lig's draw specialists, sharing the points in five of their last six outings. This resilience makes them tough to beat, but a lack of clinical finishing has prevented them from climbing the table. Their attack has been particularly quiet, failing to score more than one goal in any of their last eight league matches. Defensively, however, they have been solid, which is reflected in the fact that seven of their last eight league games have seen under 2.5 goals. Fatih Karagumruk, on the other hand, is in deep trouble at 18th place. Their recent record is alarming, with just one win in their last thirteen league games. Similar to Alanyaspor, their matches have not been high-scoring affairs, with five of the last six producing fewer than three goals. Injuries to several key attacking players further compound their offensive woes. The historical context also heavily favors the home side; Alanyaspor has a dominant head-to-head record in recent seasons, including a convincing 4-1 victory in their last encounter in the Turkish Cup. Given Alanyaspor's defensive solidity and Fatih Karagumruk's struggles for goals and form, a tight home win with a clean sheet is the most probable outcome.
Key Betting Insights
Value Bets
- Under 2.5 goals: Both teams have shown a strong trend towards low-scoring matches recently. Alanyaspor has seen under 2.5 goals in 7 of their last 8 league games, and Fatih Karagumruk in 5 of their last 6. The odds of 1.955 present good value given these trends.
- Alanyaspor to win: Despite their own struggles to secure victories, Alanyaspor is facing a team in very poor form and in the relegation zone. The home advantage and superior head-to-head record make the 1.714 odds for a home win appealing.
Risky Bets
- Correct Score 1-0: While a low-scoring home win is a plausible outcome, predicting the exact score is inherently difficult. This bet carries high risk for a high reward at odds of 6.5.
- Alanyaspor -1.5 Asian Handicap: Alanyaspor's recent goal-scoring record is poor, with under 1.5 goals scored in their last eight league matches. Covering a -1.5 handicap requires them to win by at least two goals, which seems unlikely given their offensive struggles.
Alanyaspor is currently in 10th place in the Süper Lig standings with a balanced record of 3 wins, 9 draws, and 4 losses. Their recent form has been characterized by a series of draws, having drawn 5 of their last 6 league matches. They have struggled to secure wins lately but have also been difficult to beat. Scoring has been an issue, with under 1.5 goals scored in their last 8 league games, and their recent matches have trended towards low-scoring affairs, with under 2.5 goals in 7 of the last 8.
Tactical Notes
Alanyaspor's recent string of draws and low-scoring games suggests a defensively organized team that struggles for offensive firepower. They will likely focus on maintaining a solid defensive shape and look to capitalize on moments of opportunity rather than engaging in an open, attacking contest. Their home form is average, which they will be keen to improve upon against a struggling opponent.
Key Players
Injuries
Fatih Karagumruk is in a precarious position, sitting 18th in the league table. Their form is poor, having failed to win 12 of their last 13 matches in the Süper Lig. Like their opponents, Karagumruk's recent games have also been low-scoring, with under 2.5 goals in 5 of their last 6. They are facing a significant challenge to avoid relegation and are struggling for consistency and results, particularly on the road.
Tactical Notes
Given their struggles and league position, Fatih Karagumruk will likely adopt a cautious approach. Their primary objective will be to remain defensively solid and avoid conceding early. With several players out due to injury, their squad depth is tested, which may force them into a more conservative, counter-attacking setup. They need to be clinical with any chances they create, as they have failed to score in half of their league matches this season.