AI Match Analysis & Predictions
Auxerre
Le Havre
This match presents a classic relegation six-pointer, with both Auxerre and Le Havre languishing in the bottom half of the table. [9, 26] Auxerre's primary advantage is playing at the Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps. While their overall form is poor (DLLWL), their two league wins this season have come on home soil. [9] Le Havre, conversely, are in a deeper crisis. Their form reads LDDDL, and they were thrashed 6-2 by Marseille last time out, a result that will have severely damaged morale. [16, 24] Furthermore, Le Havre's injury list is extensive, particularly in defense, which could prove decisive. [6, 19] Head-to-head history favors Le Havre, who have won 13 of the last 22 meetings. [11] However, the current circumstances, particularly Le Havre's defensive injury crisis and dreadful away form, swing the balance in favor of Auxerre. The betting odds reflect this, pricing Auxerre as favorites. [10] We expect Auxerre to leverage their home advantage and Le Havre's defensive weaknesses to secure a crucial victory. Given that both teams have struggled to keep clean sheets, a scenario where both teams score seems highly probable, leading to a prediction of a 2-1 home win.
Key Betting Insights
Value Bets
- Over 2.5 Goals: The odds of 2.107 suggest this is an outside possibility, but both teams have shown defensive frailties, and the head-to-head history includes several high-scoring games. Le Havre's last match saw eight goals, indicating a potential for goals at both ends.
- Both Teams to Score - Yes: At odds of 1.8, this represents good value. Auxerre has scored in their last two matches, while Le Havre, despite their poor form, have found the net in three of their last five away games across all competitions.
Risky Bets
- Correct Score 2-1: While this aligns with the overall prediction, picking the exact score is inherently difficult. The 8.5 odds reflect this risk, but it could offer a high reward for a plausible outcome.
- Le Havre to Win: Given their winless streak and significant injury concerns, backing an away win at 3.51 is a considerable risk, even with their historical advantage over Auxerre.
Auxerre comes into this match in a difficult period of form, as reflected by their 14th position in the league table. [26] Their recent results have been inconsistent, with a draw against Rennes preceded by consecutive losses. [12, 22] Historically, they have struggled against Le Havre, winning only 7 of their last 25 encounters. [9] Despite their poor run, they have managed to secure two wins at their home ground, the Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, this season, suggesting they are more comfortable playing in front of their own fans. [9]
Tactical Notes
Auxerre is expected to line up in a 3-4-3 formation. This setup relies heavily on the wing-backs, Josué Casimir and Gideon Mensah, to provide width in both defense and attack. Offensively, the focus will be on the creativity and goal-scoring threat of Lassine Sinayoko, who will likely lead the forward line. Their midfield pairing will need to be industrious to control the center of the park against a Le Havre side that can be compact.
Key Players
Injuries
Le Havre is also struggling for form, sitting in the 16th position, a relegation play-off spot. [9, 26] They are without a win in their last five league matches, a run that includes a heavy 6-2 defeat to Marseille in their most recent outing. [16, 24] Their away form is particularly concerning, having failed to win on the road in their last four attempts. [9] However, they hold a strong head-to-head record against Auxerre, which could provide a psychological boost. [4, 11]
Tactical Notes
Le Havre will likely adopt a cautious approach, focusing on defensive solidity to end their poor run of results. They will aim to be compact and frustrate Auxerre, looking for opportunities to counter-attack. The absence of key defensive players like Arouna Sangante could be a significant blow to their stability at the back. In goal, Mory Diaw's performance will be crucial, while Issa Soumaré will be their main threat going forward.