AI Match Analysis & Predictions
Heracles Almelo
PEC Zwolle
The tactical analysis points towards a chaotic and open match. Heracles Almelo's desperate need for points at home may force them to adopt an aggressive stance, but this could leave them exposed to PEC Zwolle's attack. Heracles has conceded a staggering 10 goals in their last two league matches, a statistic that will give Zwolle's forwards confidence. On the other hand, PEC Zwolle has conceded in each of their last five games across all competitions, indicating their own defensive setup is far from solid. The head-to-head record reinforces the likelihood of goals; the last five meetings have seen an average of 4.2 goals per game. While the betting markets slightly favor a home win, Heracles' current form makes this difficult to back with conviction. A draw seems a more plausible result, with both sides likely to get on the scoresheet. The 'Both Teams to Score' and 'Over 2.5 Goals' markets appear to be the most solid predictions for this fixture.
Key Betting Insights
Value Bets
- Draw (3.50): Given both teams' poor form and defensive issues, a stalemate offers good value, as neither side presents a compelling case for a clear victory.
- Over 3.5 goals (2.83): Head-to-head history and recent defensive performances for both teams suggest a high-scoring game is very possible, making these odds attractive.
Risky Bets
- Correct Score 2-2 (11.00): While a draw is a strong possibility and both teams are scoring and conceding, predicting the exact score is inherently difficult, making this a high-risk, high-reward bet.
- Heracles Almelo to win (2.451): Despite being the bookmakers' slight favourite at home, Heracles' recent form has been atrocious, making a straight home win a risky proposition.
Heracles Almelo enters this match in dismal form, sitting at the bottom of the Eredivisie table. [19, 30] Their recent results include heavy defeats, such as a 7-0 loss to Feyenoord and a 3-0 loss to Volendam. [23, 26] Conceding goals has been a major issue, and their confidence appears to be low. Despite the poor run, they did secure a 3-0 home win against Sparta Rotterdam, showing they can be capable on their day. Historically, their matches against PEC Zwolle are high-scoring affairs.
Tactical Notes
Heracles has been defensively fragile, as evidenced by the high number of goals conceded recently. They will need to shore up their backline significantly to have a chance. Offensively, they rely on creating chances for their main striker, Jizz Hornkamp. Given their position, they are likely to play with a sense of desperation at home, which could lead to an open, end-to-end game. Their best hope is to outscore the opponent in a high-scoring match.
Key Players
Injuries
PEC Zwolle is positioned higher in the league table than their opponents but are also struggling for consistency. [13, 32] Their last five matches show a mix of results, including two consecutive 2-2 draws, highlighting their ability to score but also their defensive vulnerabilities. [15, 16] They have a slight edge in the recent head-to-head record against Heracles. [2, 4] Their form on the road has been inconsistent, but they come into this fixture in a comparatively better state than the hosts.
Tactical Notes
PEC Zwolle has demonstrated a capacity to find the net, as seen in their recent draws. Their tactical approach often leads to games where both teams score. They will likely look to exploit Heracles' defensive weaknesses through their primary goal threats, Koen Kostons and Kaj de Rooij. However, their own defensive record suggests they will concede chances, pointing towards a game with goals at both ends.