AI Match Analysis & Predictions
Republic of North Macedonia
Latvia
The syndicate's analysis points overwhelmingly towards a victory for North Macedonia. The head-to-head record is starkly one-sided, with North Macedonia winning all five previous meetings, scoring 11 goals and conceding just two. This psychological edge cannot be understated. While North Macedonia's recent form of DDWLW is not flawless, it includes a highly credible 0-0 draw away to Belgium, showcasing their defensive organization and ability to compete with top-tier nations. The loss of Ezgjan Alioski is a setback, but the squad, featuring talents like Eljif Elmas and Enis Bardhi, has enough creativity and firepower to overcome a Latvian team in disarray. Furthermore, coach Blagoja Milevski's intention to test other players could introduce a level of unpredictability and hunger from those looking to impress. Conversely, Latvia is in a slump, with a form guide of LDLLD. They have failed to score in three of their last five matches and suffered a heavy 5-0 defeat to England. The loss of their captain and defensive linchpin, Kristers Tobers, to a long-term injury is a devastating blow that weakens an already fragile side. Their struggles to create and convert chances, coupled with their historical inferiority in this fixture, make it difficult to foresee any result other than a defeat. The betting markets reflect this reality, with North Macedonia priced as short as 1.607 for the win. The most probable outcome is a home victory, likely with a clean sheet, as reflected in the 2-0 correct score prediction.
Key Betting Insights
Value Bets
- North Macedonia to win to nil: Considering Latvia's poor scoring record and North Macedonia's defensive capabilities, combined with the favorable odds for a home win and BTTS 'No', this presents good value.
- Asian Handicap North Macedonia -1.0: Given the historical dominance and Latvia's poor form and key injuries, a win by more than one goal is a strong possibility, and the odds of 1.90 offer value.
Risky Bets
- Correct Score 2-0: While a plausible outcome, predicting the exact score is always inherently risky. However, given the trends, it's a calculated risk.
- Over 2.5 goals: The odds are attractive at 2.172, but Latvia's recent games have often been low-scoring, and North Macedonia may not push aggressively in a friendly, making this a risky proposition.
North Macedonia enters this friendly with a significant historical advantage over Latvia, having won all five previous encounters. Their recent form is mixed, with draws against Kazakhstan and Belgium, a dominant win over Liechtenstein, and a narrow loss to Saudi Arabia. The team has shown resilience, particularly in securing a goalless draw away to Belgium. However, they will be without the influential winger Ezgjan Alioski due to injury, which is a considerable blow to their attacking prowess down the flank. Coach Blagoja Milevski has indicated he may use this match to rotate his squad and give opportunities to fringe players ahead of a crucial World Cup qualifier against Wales.
Tactical Notes
North Macedonia typically employs a flexible formation, often switching between a back three and a back four. Without Alioski, they lose a key attacking outlet and experienced presence at left wing-back. Much of their creative play will likely flow through midfielders Eljif Elmas and Enis Bardhi. Upfront, Bojan Miovski will be a key focal point. Given it is a friendly before a competitive match, expect some tactical experimentation and substitutions throughout the game. Their defensive solidity, highlighted by the recent clean sheet against Belgium, will be a key foundation.
Key Players
Injuries
Latvia comes into this match in poor form, winless in their last five games, which includes heavy defeats to England and narrow losses to Albania and Serbia. Their only recent positive results were draws against Andorra and Albania. Compounding their struggles is the significant absence of their captain, Kristers Tobers, who is sidelined with a long-term knee injury. His leadership and defensive stability will be sorely missed. Latvia has a dismal head-to-head record against North Macedonia, having never won and conceding 11 goals while scoring only 2 in their five meetings.
Tactical Notes
Under coach Paolo Nicolato, Latvia often sets up defensively, especially against stronger opposition. They are likely to deploy a compact shape, aiming to frustrate North Macedonia and hit on the counter-attack. The absence of captain Kristers Tobers in midfield is a major disruption to their defensive structure. Jānis Ikaunieks remains their main creative threat, while Vladislavs Gutkovskis will be expected to lead the line. Their primary challenge will be to contain North Macedonia's technically gifted midfielders and find a way to create scoring opportunities despite their recent struggles in front of goal.