Allsvenskan Matchweek 13 delivered a pair of results that frustrated our model’s ambitious calls, as Kalmar held Malmo to a 2-2 draw and bottom-side Orgryte held Djurgardens to a goalless stalemate. The model’s record for the round saw both match result calls miss, but both win or draw calls landed.
How our forecasts did
Our model issued forecasts for only two fixtures in this round – Kalmar FF vs Malmo FF and Orgryte IS vs Djurgardens IF. Across the five topics, the win or draw call was perfect, hitting on both occasions. The match result and exact scoreline forecasts both went 0-for-2, with neither of those calls landing. The total goals and both teams to score calls split the round, each correctly forecasting one of the two matches.
Results
Friday 17 July
IFK Goteborg 2-1 IF Brommapojkarna
A tight contest at Gamla Ullevi went the way of the hosts, who edged out Brommapojkarna by a single goal. Our model had no forecast for this match.
Mjallby AIF 0-0 Vasteras SK FK
Mjallby and Vasteras played out a dour scoreless draw, with neither side able to find a breakthrough. No model forecast was published.
Saturday 18 July
AIK Stockholm 2-0 Gais
AIK were comfortable winners at home, keeping a clean sheet in a routine victory over Gais. There was no forecast for this fixture.
Sunday 19 July
IF Elfsborg 1-3 Sirius
Sirius produced an eye-catching away performance, scoring three times to stun Elfsborg. No forecast was issued.
Halmstad 0-2 BK Hacken
Hacken left Halmstad with all three points after a clinical 2-0 win. Our model did not have a forecast for this game.
Hammarby FF 4-0 Degerfors IF
Hammarby ran riot with four unanswered goals, handing Degerfors a heavy defeat. The match carried no model forecast.
Monday 20 July
Kalmar FF 2-2 Malmo FF
The round’s most anticipated fixture did not disappoint, though it denied Kalmar the win our model had projected. The call was for a home victory, backed by Kalmar’s strong home form – unbeaten in five, scoring two per game – and Malmo’s recent away struggles. A 2-2 draw meant that forecast fell short, but the accompanying high-confidence win or draw call was correct, as was the medium-confidence call for more than 2.5 goals and the high-confidence both teams to score. The low-confidence exact scoreline of 2-1 missed by a single goal.
Orgryte IS 0-0 Djurgardens IF
A goalless draw at Gamla Ullevi was the round’s other big surprise. Our model had given a medium-confidence call for a Djurgardens win, reasoning that Orgryte would score at home – they had done so in every previous home league game this season – but that the visitors’ quality would prevail. In the event, the match produced no goals at all, so the win or draw call landed but the high-confidence forecasts for both teams to score and more than 2.5 goals were both wide of the mark, as was the exact scoreline prediction.
What we got wrong
The biggest slip came in the Orgryte-Djurgardens match, where the model’s high-confidence belief in an open, goal-filled contest evaporated into a blank stalemate. The analysis pointed to Orgryte’s streak of scoring in every home game and a Djurgardens side expected to create chances, but the reality was a cagey 0-0 that left both teams to score and the over 2.5 goals call stranded. The same faith in attacking output hurt us in the Kalmar-Malmo match result call – Kalmar’s home prowess and Malmo’s away wobbles were real, yet it wasn’t enough to secure the win, only a draw.
The two exact scoreline forecasts also failed, but those were low-confidence shouts, and both missed by a single goal rather than a completely wrong outcome.
Kalmar’s 2-2 draw with Malmo keeps the title race tight, while Orgryte’s unexpected clean sheet against Djurgardens offers a small lifeline at the bottom. Our model will have plenty to ponder when the higher-confidence goal calls went one-for-two, even as the safety net of the win or draw selections held firm across both matches.
