Liga Profesional Argentina's Clausura Matchweek 8 runs from Friday evening to Monday night, with 15 matches spread across the weekend. The schedule includes the heated Rosario derby and a testing trip for Boca Juniors to Mendoza, but our forecasting model has so far only produced calls for the two Friday fixtures.
The pick of the round
The round’s opening night offers two contrasting but equally instructive matches according to our model’s projections. In the first, Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto host Sarmiento Junin, and the visitors are fancied to continue their fine form. The model leans towards a Sarmiento Junin win, with medium confidence. Estudiantes have struggled desperately in front of goal, netting just five times all season and failing to score in eight of their twelve home league matches. Sarmiento, by contrast, arrive on a four-match winning run and have been involved in high-scoring affairs on the road, though their away defensive record remains porous. The firmest calls are for a low-scoring affair: the model is highly confident there will be fewer than 2.5 goals, and that at least one side will fail to score. It also expects Sarmiento to grab the opening goal. The speculative 0-1 scoreline and the call of Sarmiento leading at half-time and full-time are longer shots, but they align with a view of the visitors squeezing out a narrow win.
Later on Friday, Platense meet Deportivo Riestra in what the model sees as a classic stalemate. Two of the Clausura’s most goal-shy sides face off, with Platense’s low-block 4-2-3-1 hosting Deportivo Riestra’s compact 5-3-2. The history between them points to a draw: four of the last five league meetings have finished level, and goals have been a rarity, with three goalless draws in the last ten encounters. The model forecasts a draw, though with low confidence, and is highly confident of under 2.5 goals. It also expects at least one team to be blanked, and the exact scoreline of 0-0 is a low-confidence speculative call. The half-time/full-time forecast of level at the break and the points shared fits the pattern of a tight, tense encounter.
Friday’s third fixture, Belgrano Cordoba against Huracan, kicks off later, with the model’s forecast still to come.
Saturday
Saturday’s action begins with Aldosivi hosting Banfield in the early afternoon, followed by Gimnasia La Plata against Tigre. Neither match has a forecast yet, but both are important for the lower reaches of the table. The standout fixture of the day is undoubtedly Gimnasia Mendoza’s clash with Boca Juniors, a fixture that will test the visitors’ title credentials. San Lorenzo meet Talleres Cordoba in the evening, and the day concludes with Velez Sarsfield taking on Estudiantes de La Plata under the lights. The model’s projections for all five Saturday fixtures are still to be released.
Sunday
Sunday’s headline act is the Clásico Rosarino, as Rosario Central host Newell’s Old Boys in a derby that always carries huge significance regardless of league position. The forecast for that one is still to come. Also on Sunday, Central Cordoba de Santiago face Independiente, Lanus play Defensa y Justicia, and later on, River Plate entertain Independiente Rivadavia. The weekend’s action spills into the early hours of Monday with Racing Club facing Atletico Tucuman. No forecasts are available yet for any of Sunday’s matches.
Monday
The round wraps up on Monday night with Barracas Central against Argentinos Juniors, and in the early hours of Tuesday, Union Santa Fe host Instituto Cordoba. Both fixtures are still awaiting the model’s in-depth analysis.
With the table tightly packed, a couple of wins could propel a side into the Copa Sudamericana places or drag another into the relegation conversation. The model’s early calls suggest a low-scoring start to the weekend, but the drama is likely to build as the bigger sides enter the fray.
