The third matchweek of the 2026 La Liga season produced the shock of the weekend as Levante, goalless and winless before kick-off, smashed five past a previously watertight Real Betis side in a 5-2 victory at the Ciutat de València. Our forecasting model had a mixed round, with a near-perfect set of win-or-draw calls providing a solid foundation while exact-scoreline projections remained largely elusive.
How our forecasts did
The win-or-draw market was comfortably the standout performer, with nine of the ten graded calls landing correctly. Match result and both teams to score each returned six correct forecasts from ten attempts, while total goals split evenly at five apiece. First team to score and half-time and full-time both managed four correct calls, and the exact scoreline projections proved the toughest ask, with only two of the ten forecasts hitting the mark.
Friday 28 August
Racing Santander 3-2 Elche
The model backed a home win and was rewarded, though the 3-2 scoreline was a touch more breathless than the forecast 2-1. All five other calls landed, including both teams to score and Racing Santander to open the scoring, making this the round’s most comprehensive forecast.
Alaves 1-0 Villarreal
Villarreal’s search for a first win continues after a 1-0 defeat in Vitoria. The model had leant cautiously towards the visitors, but Alaves’ compact 3-5-2 kept a clean sheet and the lone goal meant the forecasts for both teams to score and more than 2.5 goals both missed.
Saturday 29 August
Levante 5-2 Real Betis
In the round’s most stunning result, Levante ended their scoring drought in spectacular fashion. The model had been firm that this would be a low-scoring affair, with fewer than 2.5 goals and at least one side kept off the scoresheet, but seven goals and a rampant home display left both high-confidence calls wide of the mark.
Real Sociedad 2-1 Espanyol
Real Sociedad claimed their first points of the season with a 2-1 win at Anoeta, exactly as our forecast had projected. The model also correctly called both teams to score and the hosts to strike first, a rare exact-scoreline success on a day when the mid-range calls broadly held up.
Sevilla 1-3 Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid extended their recent dominance of this fixture with a 3-1 win at the Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán. The model had favoured a narrow home victory and missed on the match result, but the call for both teams to score and more than 2.5 goals both came in.
Sunday 30 August
Real Madrid 4-0 Malaga
Real Madrid made it three wins from three with a 4-0 dismantling of Malaga. The model’s high-confidence call for a home win and a clean sheet for the hosts were never in doubt, with the only blemish being that the final margin exceeded the forecast 2-0.
Deportivo La Coruna 3-1 Valencia
Deportivo secured a first home win of the season, outgunning a Valencia side still searching for their first goal. The model had correctly called the hosts to win or draw, but the low-confidence call for fewer than 2.5 goals was undone by a flurry of second-half strikes.
Celta Vigo 0-2 Athletic Club
Athletic Club lifted themselves off the bottom of the table with a clean sheet in Balaídos. The model had favoured a home win and both teams to score, but Celta were blunted throughout and the visitors took the points without reply.
Monday 31 August
Osasuna 1-0 Getafe
A perfect forecast saw Osasuna grind out a 1-0 win at El Sadar, exactly as the model had called. The firm projection for fewer than 2.5 goals and the medium-confidence call for a home win both landed, as did the exact scoreline in a rare clean sweep.
Barcelona 5-2 Rayo Vallecano
Barcelona’s fixture with Rayo Vallecano had been a reliably low-scoring affair in recent meetings, but that pattern was emphatically broken under the lights. The model’s medium-confidence call for fewer than 2.5 goals was blown away by a seven-goal thriller, though the hosts’ win was never in question.
What we got wrong: Levante’s goal explosion and Barcelona’s barnstormer
The model’s biggest miss of the round came at the Ciutat de València, where Levante’s 5-2 win over Real Betis contradicted two high-confidence forecasts. Levante had failed to score in their opening two league fixtures, while Betis arrived with maximum points and two clean sheets, their defence yet to be breached. The model read that form as a recipe for a tight, low-scoring contest, but the home side exploded with five goals in a performance that threw the early-season narrative out of the window. The same fragile scripting was exposed at Camp Nou, where Barcelona and Rayo Vallecano had produced a string of tight, low-scoring head-to-heads. The model’s medium-confidence under-2.5-goals call was undone by seven goals, a reminder that even well-established trends can be trampled when a side in form hits its stride.
Alaves’ 1-0 win over Villarreal also stung. The model had seen two high-scoring away draws from Villarreal and expected more of the same, but Alaves’ compact shape and a single goal meant the calls for both teams to score and more than 2.5 goals were quickly off the table.
What the round changed
Barcelona and Real Madrid remain the only sides with perfect records, and both have the look of early title pace-setters. Atletico Madrid are tucked in behind, while Real Betis’ first defeat leaves them in a chasing pack that includes a resurgent Real Sociedad. For our forecasting, the win-or-draw market continues to be the model’s most reliable output, while exact scorelines remain a puzzle that this round’s chaotic scorelines did little to solve.
