The 2026-27 Segunda División season is underway, and the opening weekend delivered a mix of emphatic victories and cagey stalemates. Almería laid down the biggest marker, dispatching Eldense 3-0 at the Power Horse Stadium, while Sporting Gijón were held to a frustrating goalless draw by a stubborn Sabadell. Our model issued forecasts for only those two final fixtures of the round, and it was a weekend of mixed fortunes: the binary calls largely held up, but the more precise predictions fell flat.
How our forecasts did
The model graded 14 forecasts across two matches, and the scoreboard paints a clear picture of what worked and what didn’t. The standout performers were the win or draw and both teams to score topics, where both calls landed correctly. Match result and first team to score each split the difference, with one correct and one incorrect apiece. Total goals also went one for two, with the under-2.5 call in Almería’s game coming unstuck. The biggest disappointments were the exact scoreline and half-time and full-time forecasts, both of which went zero for two. When the model tried to pin down the precise margins or the sequence of events, it came up empty.
Results
Friday 14 August
Real Sociedad II 0-1 Castellón
The season started with a narrow away win for Castellón, who edged past Real Sociedad’s reserve side at the Reale Arena. The hosts were unable to find a response after conceding.
Saturday 15 August
FC Andorra 5-1 AD Ceuta FC
The round’s most emphatic scoreline arrived in Andorra, where the home side ran riot. Five different goalscorers lit up the Estadi Nacional, leaving Ceuta with only a consolation to show for their efforts.
Cadiz 0-0 Celta de Vigo II
The first of the weekend’s goalless draws saw Cadiz and Celta Vigo’s B team cancel each other out. Neither attack could find the decisive touch in a match of few clear chances.
Oviedo 0-0 Granada CF
It was the same story at the Carlos Tartiere, where Oviedo and Granada played out a stalemate. Both sides showed early-season caution, and the defences emerged on top.
Mallorca 2-0 Valladolid
Mallorca made a strong start on home turf, seeing off Valladolid with a goal in each half. The visitors rarely threatened a comeback, and the islanders took all three points comfortably.
Sunday 16 August
Eibar 1-3 Tenerife
The shock of the weekend came at Ipurua, where Tenerife stunned Eibar by three goals. The visitors produced a clinical performance away from home, leaving Eibar with plenty to ponder after a heavy defeat.
Burgos 3-2 Cordoba
The most entertaining contest of the round saw Burgos edge a five-goal thriller against Cordoba. The lead changed hands before Burgos found the winner in a breathless second half.
Girona 1-1 Leganes
Girona and Leganes shared the points in a tight encounter. Both goals came from set-pieces, and neither side could find a breakthrough in the closing stages.
Las Palmas 2-1 Albacete
The islanders made it a perfect weekend for the home sides in the Canaries. Las Palmas scored early and held off a late Albacete rally to secure all three points.
Monday 17 August
Sporting Gijon 0-0 Sabadell
Our model’s first test of the season came at El Molinón, and it was a frustrating one. The medium-confidence call for a Sporting Gijon win proved incorrect; they could not break down a resolute Sabadell rearguard. The forecast correctly identified that the game would be low-scoring (fewer than 2.5 goals landed) and that at least one side would fail to score. However, the more adventurous calls — Gijon to score first, a 1-0 exact scoreline, and Gijon to be ahead at half-time and full-time — all missed the mark. The analysis had pointed to Sporting’s home advantage and a favourable head-to-head record, but Sabadell’s compact shape, as anticipated, proved decisive in frustrating the hosts.
Almeria 3-0 Eldense
The final fixture of the round saw Almería produce a commanding performance. The model’s medium-confidence match result call for an Almería win was spot on, and the win-or-draw and both-teams-to-score forecasts also landed correctly. The first-team-to-score call — Almería to open the scoring — was another winner. The trouble came with the goal count: the low-confidence tip for fewer than 2.5 goals was blown away as Almería struck three times. The exact scoreline call of 1-0 and the half-time/full-time call of level at the break and Almería winning it were both incorrect; Almería led 1-0 at the interval and added two more after the restart. The analysis referenced Almería’s 5-0 demolition of Eldense in the final weeks of last season, but the model still expected a tighter opening-day affair — a miscalculation that Eldense’s defending could not reinforce.
What we got wrong
The weekend’s biggest misses were concentrated in the precision markets. The exact scoreline calls — 1-0 to Sporting Gijon and 1-0 to Almería — both failed, and in Almería’s case the margin of error was wide. The half-time/full-time forecasts also came up empty: Gijon never led, and Almería were already ahead at the break, not level. The total goals call in the Almería match was another notable misstep. The model read the historical head-to-head and the possibility of a cagey season opener, but Almería’s attacking sharpness rendered that cautious view obsolete. On the other hand, the model’s strength in binary outcomes — win-or-draw, both teams to score, and the simple match result in Almería’s case — was a reminder that broad directional calls are easier to nail than exact sequences.
What the round changed
Almería sit top of the early table on goal difference, while FC Andorra’s five-goal salvo sends a warning to the rest of the division. The three 0-0 draws suggest several sides are still finding their rhythm in attack. For the model, it’s a quietly instructive start: the framework correctly identified the low-event nature of the Sporting Gijon game and Almería’s superiority, but the step from general direction to exact margin is a steep one. With 40 matchweeks to go, there is plenty of time for the forecasts to sharpen as the data picture builds.
