The second weekend of the Segunda División season delivered a jolting statement from Granada CF, who dismantled a newly-relegated Mallorca 2-0 to headline a round full of tight margins and surprising upsets. For our forecasting model, the weekend spelled trouble for the headline calls, as match result predictions stumbled to just four correct from eleven graded opportunities, though the safety net of the win-or-draw market provided a much firmer footing.
How our forecasts did
The model’s most reliable angle this round was the win-or-draw market, which correctly landed in seven of its eleven graded calls, providing a solid base on a tricky weekend. The first team to score forecasts also edged into the black, with six correct outings from eleven attempts. Total goals and both teams to score both finished at a flat five correct from eleven, meanwhile.
It was a far leaner afternoon for the ambitious calls. The match result forecasts found the mark only four times, while the pursuit of perfect scorelines proved especially punishing. Just two of the eleven exact scoreline calls landed, and the half-time and full-time market bottomed out with a single correct call from the eleven graded—the model’s weakest return of the week.
Results
Cordoba 2-1 Girona
The round opened with a Friday-night thriller where Cordoba held off Girona. The model got the low-confidence call for a home win correct, but its supporting forecasts for a high-scoring affair with both teams finding the net missed the mark.
Oviedo 0-1 Leganes
A disciplined Leganes side stole the points in Oviedo. The model’s high-confidence forecasts for a low-scoring, one-sided scoresheet were spot on, but it had backed the wrong team to win, calling for a home victory.
Albacete 1-2 Real Sociedad II
Albacete’s homecoming was a disaster, as all six of the model’s match-related calls sailed wide. The sole correct forecast in this fixture was the bold prediction that Real Sociedad II would lead at the break and go on to claim the win, a low-confidence call that landed perfectly.
AD Ceuta FC 0-2 Las Palmas
Las Palmas proved too strong for a Ceuta side still reeling from an opening-day thrashing. The model correctly called a Las Palmas win and the opening goal, but overestimated the goal count in a game that stayed under the 2.5 threshold.
Eldense 2-2 Cadiz
This was a bruising encounter for the model’s forecasts. A high-confidence call for Cadiz to score first was turned on its head, and the prediction for a tight, low-scoring away win dissolved in a four-goal draw. The win-or-draw call for Cadiz was the only offering that scraped through.
Eibar 1-0 Valladolid
Eibar delivered the most complete performance of the weekend from a forecasting perspective. The model called the home win, a clean sheet, fewer than 2.5 total goals, the opening goal for the hosts, and even nailed the exact scoreline of 1-0. Only the high-low strategy of calling Eibar to lead at the interval came up short.
Castellón 0-0 Sabadell
Castellón’s home bow fell completely flat in a goalless stalemate. The model had forecast a home win, multiple goals, and a fast start for Castellón, all of which fizzled out. The call for at least one side to be shut out was a minor consolidation in a sea of misfires.
Sporting Gijon 1-0 Burgos
Sporting Gijon scrapped their way to a first win of the campaign. The model’s low-confidence call for a 1-0 home win was a direct hit, but its forecast that both teams would score proved the undoing of a clean sweep.
Tenerife 1-0 Almeria
History counted for nothing in Tenerife. The model leaned heavily on Almeria’s superb record at the ground, calling an away win and for the visitors to score first. Tenerife had other ideas, keeping a clean sheet and leaving the win-or-draw and low-scoring forecasts as the model’s only correct returns.
Celta de Vigo II 4-2 FC Andorra
The biggest upset of the matchweek. Coming off a 5-1 thrashing in their opener, FC Andorra were heavily favoured by the model, which called an away win, a clean sheet, and a tight game. Instead, Celta de Vigo II exploded for four goals. The solitary bright spot for the model was correctly identifying that FC Andorra would score first, but the match quickly spiralled out of script.
Granada CF 2-0 Mallorca
Granada closed the round with a statement victory, comfortably beating a Mallorca side the model had tipped to avoid defeat. The call for a draw was wrong, but the forecasts for a clean sheet and fewer than 2.5 total goals held firm, with the hosts defying the model’s low-scoring 0-0 vision.
What we got wrong
The model’s biggest misread of the round was the Celta de Vigo II–FC Andorra fixture. The analysis had pointed to a Celta side that “barely registered” in attack during their first outing, facing an Andorra team fresh from generating 4.64 expected goals. That attacking gulf made the prediction of an Andorran shutout logical, but Celta's four-goal outburst was the opposite of what the underlying numbers suggested.
The match result market had a particularly rough round, correctly calling only four of eleven matches. The defeat for high-flying FC Andorra was the most glaring, but the model also backed the wrong favourites in Oviedo and Albacete, both of whom lost at home despite having considerable support in the model’s reasoning. The half-time and full-time market suffered a near-total wipeout, managing only a single correct call across eleven attempts, a reminder of the volatility inherent in trying to map the in-game narrative from kickoff to final whistle.
What the round changed
The shock defeats for FC Andorra and Almeria, both tipped as strong promotion candidates, have scrambled the early hierarchy, while Granada’s win throws them firmly into the conversation. For the model, the round serves as a sobering lesson in the limits of reading opening-weekend form. What looked like early patterns dissolved fast, leaving the safer, broader markets as the only reliable shelter on a stormy matchweek.
