Segunda División’s third matchweek of the 2026 season served up the round’s biggest shock at Montilivi, where Girona demolished previously perfect Las Palmas 5-2 in a chaotic seven-goal thriller. That result was emblematic of a difficult week for our forecasting model: the headline match-result calls went badly awry, landing only three of eleven projections, though the site’s broader calls on the win-or-draw and goals markets steadied the ship.
How our forecasts did
The week’s results were a stark tale of two halves for the model. The narrowest match markets — exact scoreline and half-time and full-time — proved punishing, with the exact scoreline forecast coming good just once and the half-time and full-time call twice. In contrast, the more permissive markets flourished. The win-or-draw and both-teams-to-score projections were the top performers, each graded eight from eleven calls correct. The total goals and first-team-to-score forecasts also held their own, both landing seven of their eleven graded calls.
Results
Tenerife 0-1 Sporting Gijon Our model backed the home side’s perfect start to continue but fell foul of a supremely organised Gijon backline. The call for fewer than 2.5 goals and at least one clean sheet both landed, but the firm call for Tenerife to win and score first were undone by a stubborn away performance.
Sabadell 1-0 Almeria A low-confidence draw call went up in smoke as Sabadell grabbed a winner to break their scoring duck, though the model’s high-confidence calls for a goalless outing for one side and fewer than 2.5 goals were both correct. The cautious backing of Sabadell in the double-chance market also came good.
Albacete 0-1 Oviedo Albacete’s search for a first point goes on, and the model’s call for them to nick it at home was wide of the mark. The forecast did correctly anticipate a tight affair with fewer than 2.5 goals and a clean sheet for one team, but Oviedo’s winner was a direct hit on our projection that the hosts would open the scoring.
Leganes 1-0 Eldense The model’s standout performance of the round. Leganes did exactly as expected, winning 1-0 at Butarque to deliver a clean sweep of every call at kick-off: the home win, the Leganes opener, and the under-2.5-goals forecast all landed. The only blemish was a half-time lead call, with the goal coming after the break.
Girona 5-2 Las Palmas The round’s wildest scoreline blew multiple forecasts apart. A low-confidence punt on a Las Palmas win was wrong, and the medium-confidence call for fewer than 2.5 goals was obliterated. Both teams to score did land in a game where the model noted both sides’ habit of late goals, but nobody foresaw a seven-goal avalanche.
FC Andorra 0-1 Eibar Our model sided with Andorra’s firepower but was schooled by Eibar’s remarkable head-to-head dominance. The low-confidence call for Eibar to grab the opener landed, as did the tight under-2.5-goals projection, though the home win and the exact scoreline calls were off the mark.
Cadiz 1-1 Valladolid The model got the home opener and the under-2.5 goals right, but its high-confidence declaration that one side would fail to score was wrong. Valladolid ended their lengthy away goalless streak, and Cadiz could not hold onto the lead their first goal provided, forcing us to mark the high-confidence both-teams-to-score call as a miss.
Mallorca 3-0 AD Ceuta FC A firm high-confidence win for Mallorca was never in doubt. The hosts stormed to a 3-0 victory, confirming the model’s calls for a Mallorca opener and a high-scoring game, though the specific 2-0 exact scoreline and the both-teams-to-score projection were slightly off as Ceuta drew a blank.
Cordoba 1-3 Granada CF Our highest-profile miss of the weekend. The model pointed to Cordoba’s 5-0 thrashing of Granada last season and banked on the hosts, but Granada’s attack emphatically solved its travel sickness. The call for Cordoba to win was wrong, the win-or-draw safety net also failed, and the under-2.5-goals projection was stamped out in a four-goal away performance.
Burgos 2-2 Real Sociedad II A home fortress was breached. The model’s medium-confidence calls for a Burgos win and a clean sheet for one side were both wrong in an end-to-end draw that saw four goals. The Burgos opener did land, but the forecast leaning on the hosts’ defensive solidity was undone by a leaky afternoon.
Celta de Vigo II 1-2 Castellón A low-confidence away win came home. Castellón’s unbeaten road form held firm in a 2-1 victory, correctly landing our cautious win-or-draw and both-teams-to-score calls. The model’s read of Castellón’s dominance was sharp, though the hosts opened the scoring against the run of that forecast.
What we got wrong: Cordoba and Granada CF
The week’s worst collective miss was the Cordoba-Granada CF fixture. The model’s reasoning was sound on paper: it pointed to Cordoba’s 5-0 home win in this exact fixture a season ago and a home victory already banked this term. Granada’s attack — averaging only 0.6 goals across their previous five away matches — was identified as a major limiting factor. The match delivered the opposite. Granada scored three on the road, exploiting the hosts to render our medium-confidence match result and win-or-draw calls, plus a low-confidence total-goals projection, all incorrect in one fell swoop. It was a reminder that historical head-to-head data and recent away averages can be bulldozed by a single performance.
What the round changed
Mallorca’s perfect start from two home games gives them a fearsome look, while Las Palmas and Cordoba were brought crashing down to earth. Eibar’s hoodoo over FC Andorra now stands at four straight meetings without the Andorrans scoring a single goal — a streak our analysis flagged but the main forecast talked itself out of. Girona’s late-goal habit finally exploded into a full-blown rout, and it leaves the model’s cautious low-scoring template for them in need of a rethink.
