Jupiler Pro League Matchweek 4 delivered the shock of the season so far as Gent defeated previously flawless Club Brugge KV 2-1, leaving our model’s high-confidence away win call in tatters. Across the nine fixtures, the forecasts struggled with exact scorelines and both teams to score, but fared better on win-or-draw and total goals calls.
How our forecasts did
Across the nine matches, the model published 63 graded forecasts. The most reliable topics were win-or-draw and total goals, both returning six correct from nine calls. Match result and first team to score each got four right, while both teams to score mustered just three. Half-time and full-time landed twice, and the exact scoreline calls, all low-confidence, failed entirely, going zero for nine.
Results
Genk 4-0 SK Beveren
The weekend opened on Friday with Genk hammering SK Beveren 4-0. The model’s high-confidence home win, over 2.5 goals, and Genk to score first all landed, but the cautious both-teams-to-score call missed as the visitors drew a blank. The predicted 2-0 exact scoreline was wide of the mark, though a low-confidence half-time/full-time Genk/Genk came in.
RAAL La Louvière 2-2 KV Mechelen
In a battle of the winless, RAAL La Louvière and KV Mechelen played out a 2-2 draw. The model’s low-confidence home win was wrong, but the insurance win-or-draw, over 2.5 goals, and both teams to score all landed. La Louvière did not open the scoring, scuppering the first-team-to-score and half-time/full-time predictions.
Kortrijk 1-3 Charleroi
Charleroi continued their perfect start with a 3-1 win at Kortrijk, making the medium-confidence away win call correct. However, the under 2.5 goals forecast was blown apart by a four-goal thriller, and the high-confidence both-teams-to-score-no call also missed after Kortrijk got on the scoresheet. Charleroi did score first, as predicted.
Cercle Brugge 0-1 Lommel United
The model’s toughest afternoon came at Cercle Brugge, where a low-confidence home win call preceded a 0-1 defeat to Lommel United. Every one of the seven forecasts for this fixture was incorrect — the biggest clean miss of the round. The analysis had noted Cercle Brugge’s defensive weakness and Lommel’s solidity, but the call leaned the wrong way entirely.
OH Leuven 1-2 Standard Liege
Standard Liege made it four unbeaten with a 2-1 victory at bottom side OH Leuven, rewarding the medium-confidence away win and over 2.5 goals calls. The model also correctly called Standard to score first and lead at the break en route to victory, though the both-teams-to-score call fell short when the hosts netted a consolation.
Gent 2-1 Club Brugge KV
In the game of the round, Gent ended Club Brugge’s perfect start with a 2-1 home win, turning the model’s highest-confidence match-result forecast on its head. Club Brugge had been forecast to win, keep a clean sheet, and score first, but none of that materialised. All seven calls were incorrect, making this the second full-house miss of the weekend and the most damaging to the overall record.
Antwerp 1-4 St. Truiden
Antwerp suffered a stunning 1-4 home defeat to St. Truiden, wrecking a medium-confidence home win call and the win-or-draw fallback. The over 2.5 goals and both-teams-to-score calls came through as a chaotic match unfolded, but the model had Antwerp to score first, which they did not.
Union St. Gilloise 3-0 Anderlecht
Union St. Gilloise overwhelmed Anderlecht 3-0 in a display of force, making the medium-confidence home win and over 2.5 goals correct. The both-teams-to-score call, however, missed as Anderlecht failed to register. The first-team-to-score forecast landed, but the half-time prediction of level at the break was wrong after Union took an early lead.
KVC Westerlo 2-2 Zulte Waregem
The round ended with rock-bottom KVC Westerlo holding unbeaten Zulte Waregem to a 2-2 draw. The medium-confidence away win was wrong, but the win-or-draw safety net, over 2.5 goals, and both teams to score all hit. Westerlo opened the scoring, meaning the first-team-to-score call for Zulte Waregem failed.
What we got wrong
The model’s biggest mis-step was backing Club Brugge KV with high confidence. The analysis pointed to three straight wins without conceding, while Gent had been drawing at home. That logic collapsed as Gent scored twice and Club Brugge, for the first time this season, looked mortal. The 0-7 return on that fixture alone dragged the match-result and both-teams-to-score categories down sharply.
Cercle Brugge’s 0-1 home loss to Lommel United was another full misfire. The model saw Cercle’s defensive openness and Lommel’s resilience and still picked the hosts to win. That decision set off a chain of incorrect calls across all seven topics. The exact scoreline forecasts, uniformly low-confidence, failed across the board — a reminder of the difficulty of pinning down precise margins in a league where 24 goals were scored across nine games.
Matchweek 4 reshaped the Pro League picture. Genk’s statement win and Union’s demolition of Anderlecht tightened the top, while Club Brugge’s first defeat opened the door. Antwerp’s implosion and Cercle Brugge’s struggles at the bottom added volatility that the model, for all its correct calls on goal trends, couldn’t fully capture.
