The second week of the Süper Lig season served up a pair of major shocks as high-flying Beşiktaş and fancied Göztepe both fell to defeats that wrecked large parts of our model's card. Galatasaray and Fenerbahçe flexed their muscles with home wins, while the model’s exact-scoreline project paid out in Trabzon and Çorum. Overall, the forecasts racked up a solid return on the win-or-draw front but found the going much tougher on the half-time and full-time calls.
How our forecasts did
The win-or-draw market was the day’s standout, with seven of the nine graded calls landing correctly. The total goals forecasts also delivered a profit, returning six correct verdicts from nine attempts. The headline match-result calls broke exactly even at five correct from nine, a mark that was matched by both teams to score and first team to score. The bottom of the card belonged to the exotics: exact scoreline managed only two on-target calls from nine, and the half-time and full-time forecasts fared little better with just three correct.
Results
Erzurumspor FK 0-4 Galatasaray
Galatasaray opened the weekend with a statement win, dismantling Erzurumspor FK on the road. Our model was overwhelmingly confident in the visitors and landed six of its seven calls. The high-confidence match result and opening-goal projections were spot on, and the firm win-or-draw call duly obliged. A cautious projection for more than 2.5 goals also came in comfortably. The only blemish was the exact-scoreline call, which predicted a 0-2 scoreline rather than the full 0-4 rout.
Çorum FK 0-1 Kasımpaşa
Kasımpaşa ground out a narrow away win in a fixture where our model delivered its best single-match performance of the round. Six of the seven calls were graded correct, headlined by the medium-confidence match result and first-team-to-score projections. The highlight was the low-confidence exact-scoreline forecast, which called the 1-0 away win perfectly. The only miss was a cautious call for both teams to score, scuppered by Çorum’s inability to find the net.
Rizespor 0-2 Samsunspor
This Black Sea derby was a wipeout for our model, which had backed Rizespor’s disciplined opening-day form to carry them through. Every single forecast failed to land. The low-confidence calls for a home win, both teams to score, and more than 2.5 goals all fell apart as Samsunspor kept a clean sheet in a tight affair. The model had read Samsunspor’s chaotic 3-3 thriller in week one and expected the back line to leak again, but the visitors defended resolutely where it mattered.
Fenerbahçe 4-2 Konyaspor
Fenerbahçe got off the mark for the season with a lively victory, but the six-goal thriller wrong-footed our model’s more conservative projections. The high-confidence calls for a Fenerbahçe win and for the hosts to score first were both correct. However, the medium-confidence calls for fewer than 2.5 goals and for at least one side to be shut out both missed badly. The model had leaned heavily on Fenerbahçe’s recent home defensive discipline and Konyaspor’s blunt attack, a reading the match did not deliver.
Eyüpspor 0-1 Gaziantep FK
Eyüpspor’s attacking sterility continued into a second week, and Gaziantep FK capitalised with a narrow away win. Our model got the match result wrong by backing Eyüpspor at low confidence, swayed by a dominant head-to-head record that included a 3-0 win in this fixture in April. The call for a winner either way, with the draw the least likely outcome, did land correctly. The medium-confidence forecast for Gaziantep to score first also came in, but the both-teams-to-score projection missed.
Trabzonspor 2-1 Başakşehir
Trabzonspor edged a tight contest at Papara Park, and our model responded with a near-perfect card. The medium-confidence calls for a home win and the win-or-draw projection both landed. The cautious total-goals and both-teams-to-score forecasts also came in, and the low-confidence exact-scoreline call of 2-1 was nailed on. The solitary mistake was the half-time and full-time projection, which had gambled on Başakşehir leading at the interval.
Alanyaspor 1-0 Beşiktaş
The round’s biggest upset saw Beşiktaş’s six-match run of clean sheets ended by a resolute Alanyaspor side. Our model had read the visitors’ immaculate defensive form and issued a high-confidence call for an away win, which proved to be its most damaging miss of the round. The high-confidence win-or-draw forecast also failed, while the low-confidence calls for Beşiktaş to score first and lead at the break followed suit. The model did correctly project fewer than 2.5 goals and for one side to be kept off the scoresheet.
Göztepe 0-1 Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Göztepe’s home defeat was the round’s other major mis-step for our forecasts. Buoyed by a wild 3-3 draw in week one and a perfect recent head-to-head record of three clean-sheet wins over Gençlerbirliği, the model backed a home win at medium confidence and also projected the hosts to score first. Both calls failed, as did the win-or-draw safety net. The one correct call was the projection for at least one side to be kept off the scoresheet, though the model had banked on it being the visitors.
Kocaelispor 2-0 Amed
Kocaelispor bounced back from an opening-day loss with a clean 2-0 win, defying the model’s cautious leaning towards an away upset. The low-confidence match-result call for a home win landed, but the supporting forecasts did not. The model had tipped Amed to score first and lead at the break, reading too much into the visitors’ dominant 3-0 victory in week one. The call for no draw was correct, and the medium-confidence both-teams-to-score projection landed as Kocaelispor kept a clean sheet.
What we got wrong: Beşiktaş’s off day and the Göztepe collapse
The round’s two most expensive misses shared a common thread: the model placed heavy trust in a defining trend that the pitch refused to honour. For Beşiktaş, the defensive record heading into the trip to Alanya was immaculate — six competitive matches without conceding a single goal. That streak informed every layer of the forecast, from the high-confidence match-result and win-or-draw calls right down to the expectation that the visitors would nudge in front and manage the game from there. Alanyaspor had other ideas, finding a goal that nobody else had managed for months and holding on for a famous 1-0 win.
The Gürsel Aksel Stadium produced similar frustration. Göztepe’s recent history against Gençlerbirliği was one of total dominance: three straight wins to nil. The model paired that with the hosts’ chaotic but goal-laden draw on matchday one and read a comfortable home victory. Instead, the attack fired a blank and the win-or-draw safety net, issued at medium confidence, collapsed inside ninety minutes.
Away from those two headline upsets, the Rizespor wipeout was the cleanest misread of a team’s trajectory. The model had Samsunspor pinned as defensively reckless after their 3-3 opener and expected Rizespor’s controlled opening-day display to be enough. Samsunspor’s back line tightened up dramatically, and a fixture that looked set for goals and a home win became a 2-0 away shutout that landed nothing for our forecast card.
What the round changed
Galatasaray’s demolition job in Erzurum marked them as early front-runners, while Fenerbahçe’s four-goal spree suggested their attack can compensate for the defensive lapses the model did not anticipate. The Beşiktaş and Göztepe results, however, served as a sharp reminder that early-season defensive records and head-to-head streaks are brittle foundations. With two rounds gone the Süper Lig has already delivered a handful of surprises, and our scoreboard — strong on the double-chance market but punished on the exact scorelines — reflects a weekend where the favourites’ armour showed unexpected cracks.
