It was a weekend of derby dust-ups and upset alerts as Major League Soccer’s Matchweek 18 wrapped up. The headline act was the final fixture of the round — a feisty Cascadia Cup clash that saw Portland Timbers deepen Seattle Sounders’ misery with a correct scoreline call. Elsewhere, FC Cincinnati put four past a San Jose side the model had backed to win, and a decimated LA Galaxy dug out a goalless stalemate against FC Dallas. For our forecasting model, it was a round of two halves: a rock-solid performance on the win-or-draw front was offset by several high-confidence misfires on the goal markets.
How our forecasts did
The model struggled with the nitty-gritty, particularly when predicting goal feasts that never arrived. The win or draw call was the standout performer, landing an excellent 13 of 14 graded forecasts. The bread-and-butter match result market also held up well, correctly calling eight of 14 outcomes. However, the total goals calls turned into a headache; just six of 14 landed, with heavy-hitting home attacks in Colorado, LA, and St. Louis all failing to breach the 2.5-goal threshold they were firmly expected to surpass. The ambitious exact scoreline calls scraped two hits (Chicago and Portland) from 14, while neither of the two half-time and full-time projections came off.
Friday
New York City FC 1-1 Toronto FC The round opened with a stumble. The model’s medium-confidence call for a NYCFC win never looked safe once the makeshift home defence — gutted by six regular starters missing — failed to hold a lead. The forecast did correctly peg both teams to score and NYCFC to open the scoring, but the lack of cohesion highlighted in the pre-match analysis prevented the predicted 2-1 win.
Saturday
Inter Miami 2-2 Columbus Crew A reality check for the Herons without Lionel Messi. The high-confidence call for more than 2.5 goals and both teams to score landed comfortably, but pushing for a home win was a bridge too far. A five-match winning streak was halted by a Crew side that exploited Miami’s attacking bluntness in a 2-2 draw.
Vancouver Whitecaps 1-1 Los Angeles FC A classic “unstoppable force meets adjustable object” scenario. Vancouver’s home fortress (seven wins from eight) failed to repel an LAFC side that was level on points. The model overestimated the Whitecaps’ ability to win a shootout; the 1-1 scoreline defied the medium-confidence push for a home win and a goals festival, though the call for both teams to score proved accurate.
Philadelphia Union 3-2 Atlanta United FC The Union got the win we projected, though not in the manner expected. The model’s medium-confidence call for fewer than 2.5 goals and a clean sheet for one side was blown apart by an end-to-end slugfest. Atlanta’s porous road defense showed up, but so did an uncharacteristically open Philly backline.
New York Red Bulls 3-2 Orlando City SC Everything went to plan here — almost. The model was high-confidence on goals and both teams to score, and the 3-2 thriller delivered exactly that. The call for a Red Bulls win landed, even if Orlando— potentially missing top scorer Martín Ojeda — pushed them all the way.
FC Cincinnati 4-2 San Jose Earthquakes This was the round’s biggest whiff on the match result market. With San Jose’s stingy defense (conceding just 1.2 goals per game) pitted against a bold 3-4-1-2, the model backed the ‘Quakes to win or draw. Instead, the Earthquakes were buried under an avalanche, conceding four. The only saving grace was an easy high-confidence hit on both teams to score and the over 2.5 goals call.
DC United 2-2 Nashville SC A textbook DC United performance, if you’re a forecaster. The medium-confidence call for a draw landed square, driven by the analysis that they are the East’s draw specialists with six stalemates in ten. Both teams scored as expected, though a tight 1-1 was upgraded to a 2-2, missing the “fewer than 2.5 goals” projection.
CF Montreal 2-2 New England Revolution A blank slate. No forecasts were published for this fixture, which finished all square at 2-2.
Chicago Fire 2-1 Charlotte A diamond of a call. Beyond the well-signposted win and goals, the spotlight goes on the low-confidence exact scoreline: Chicago Fire 2-1 Charlotte. It landed perfectly. The hosts extended their winning streak to four, overcoming an early Charlotte strike that spoiled the “first team to score” call.
Minnesota United FC 1-1 San Diego Discipline defined this one. The high-confidence call for fewer than 2.5 goals and a Minnesota win-or-draw held firm in a 1-1 stalemate. San Diego’s road struggles continued, though both teams eventually scoring nicked the medium-confidence call for at least one side to be kept quiet.
Sporting Kansas City 0-2 Houston Dynamo The model got the winner right but the process wrong. Houston won comfortably as projected, but Sporting’s usually reliable home attack — which boasted a 100% both-teams-to-score record across their last four— finally failed to fire, leaving the both teams to score and over 2.5 goals calls in tatters.
St. Louis City 1-1 Real Salt Lake The round’s most painful high-confidence miss. St. Louis arrived undefeated in five with elite underlying numbers (1.49 xG for, 0.68 against), yet they couldn’t break down a Real Salt Lake side that kept zero away clean sheets. The 1-1 draw torpedoed the high-confidence calls for a home win and, because it lacked a third goal, the over 2.5 goals projection too.
Sunday
Colorado Rapids 1-0 Austin A defensive masterclass ruined the script. The model was all-in on fireworks, citing Austin’s 3.1 goals conceded per away game and Colorado’s 2.3 scored at home. It was a sound pick for a home win, but the total goals and both teams to score calls missed as the visitors surprisingly tightened up in a 1-0 defeat.
Los Angeles Galaxy 0-0 FC Dallas The Galaxy’s injury list — missing Riqui Puig, Edwin Cerrillo, and Joao Klauss — was always going to make this tough, but nobody saw a nil-nil coming. The high-confidence call for both teams to score was a clean miss, as was the medium-confidence push for an FC Dallas away win. Dallas held on, but a blunt Galaxy attack couldn’t give them the required win or the goals.
Portland Timbers 2-1 Seattle Sounders Saving the best for last. In a high-confidence showcase, the model nailed the Portland win and both teams to score. But the pièce de résistance was the low-confidence exact scoreline call: Portland Timbers 2-1 Seattle Sounders. It was a fatal blow for a Sounders side deep in injury crisis, now saddled with six straight league defeats.
What we got wrong
The model’s confidence in chaotic, high-scoring affairs was frequently misplaced this weekend. The biggest collective miss was on the total goals front, where a run of 1-1 draws and a frustrating 0-0 in LA dragged the tally down to just six correct calls from 14.
The St. Louis City vs. Real Salt Lake fixture was the chief offender. The analysis pointed to a team in full control against a side that ships two goals per game away and never keeps a clean sheet. That highly confident logic was shredded by a 1-1 draw. Similarly, the model read Colorado Rapids vs. Austin as a guaranteed goal-fest based on Austin’s abysmal away defending, only to see the visitors concede just a single goal. San Jose’s 4-2 collapse at Cincinnati was the ultimate outlier; the model had correctly identified a strong defensive unit, but it completely underestimated Cincinnati’s ability to dismantle it.
The round served as a stark reminder that in MLS, travel fatigue and mid-season slumps can swiftly override even the most robust data trends, turning goal-fests into chess matches.
Matchweek 18 tightened the noose in the West and deepened the crisis in Seattle, while the Eastern Conference continued its chaotic, unpredictable dance. With the model proving largely reliable on match outcomes but shaky on the goal tallies, the data points toward a league where results are getting slightly easier to call, but the margins of victory are becoming a guessing game.
