Major League Soccer’s Matchweek 3 delivered lopsided scorelines and a quiet afternoon for the club’s forecasting model, which only issued calls for one of the weekend’s 15 fixtures. New York City FC’s 5-0 demolition of Orlando City SC was the round’s headline result, while Houston Dynamo ruined the model’s night with a 2-0 win at New England, leaving the set of seven forecasts at two correct.
How our forecasts did
The model’s Matchweek 3 scoreboard was confined entirely to the New England Revolution versus Houston Dynamo contest. Across seven different topics, only two calls hit the mark: the “win or draw” prediction that a winner would emerge either way (which Houston delivered) and the “total goals” call for fewer than 2.5 goals (the 0-2 final tally met that comfortably). The remaining five calls — match result (a New England win), both teams to score, first team to score (New England), exact scoreline (New England 2-1) and half-time and full-time (New England ahead at the break and winning it) — all missed the mark as the Revs were shut out at home.
Results
New York City FC 5-0 Orlando City SC
The biggest win of the round saw NYCFC run riot at home, putting five unanswered goals past Orlando.
DC United 1-2 Inter Miami
Inter Miami took the points on the road with a narrow victory, leaving DC United searching for their first home win.
Columbus Crew 0-0 Chicago Fire
Neither side could break the deadlock in a stalemate that offered few clear openings.
Philadelphia Union 0-1 San Jose Earthquakes
San Jose snatched a late winner to hand Philadelphia a disappointing home defeat.
Atlanta United FC 2-3 Real Salt Lake
Real Salt Lake edged a five-goal thriller in Atlanta, responding twice to the hosts’ fightbacks.
Charlotte 3-1 Austin
Charlotte were comfortable winners at home, pulling clear of an Austin side that never recovered from the early setback.
St. Louis City 0-1 Seattle Sounders
Seattle ground out a single-goal away success, keeping St. Louis off the scoreboard.
Nashville SC 3-1 Minnesota United FC
Nashville delivered a convincing home display, scoring three to see off Minnesota.
Sporting Kansas City 0-1 San Diego
San Diego travelled well, claiming a clean-sheet victory in Kansas City.
Colorado Rapids 4-1 Los Angeles Galaxy
Colorado thumped LA Galaxy, with four goals underlining a dominant performance at altitude.
Los Angeles FC 1-0 FC Dallas
LAFC squeezed past FC Dallas thanks to a tight one-goal margin in the late kick-off.
Portland Timbers 1-4 Vancouver Whitecaps
Vancouver ran riot in Portland, their four away goals the story of the Cascadia clash.
New York Red Bulls 0-3 CF Montreal
Montreal were emphatic winners in New York, shutting out the Red Bulls entirely.
FC Cincinnati 0-1 Toronto FC
Toronto took a narrow win on the road as Cincinnati drew a blank.
New England Revolution 0-2 Houston Dynamo
The model’s only graded match of the round saw its “win or draw” call land (a winner emerged) and the “total goals” projection for fewer than 2.5 also prove correct. A cautious call for both teams to score, however, missed after Houston kept a clean sheet, and the firm expectation of a New England win — along with the exact scoreline and half-time/full-time calls — was brushed aside.
What we got wrong in New England
The model was drawn to New England’s strong home form and attacking depth, but noted that the Revs would have to rejig a back line missing several regular starters. The reasoning admitted that Houston had been clinical on the break this season and could exploit those gaps. In the end, the forecast favoured a narrow 2-1 home win in which both sides would get on the scoresheet, with the Revolution ahead at the interval.
Instead, Houston’s counter-attacking edge proved sharper than the model anticipated. The Dynamo kept a rare road clean sheet, punishing New England’s reshuffled defence twice and negating the host attack entirely. The “win or draw” call succeeded purely because the draw was ruled out — a technical hit that still jarred with the broader expectation of a Revolution victory. The remaining misses, particularly both teams to score and the exact scoreline, highlight how easily a single-defender crisis can undermine a home favourite’s chances.
Matchweek 3 did little to clarify the early-season MLS hierarchy, but Houston’s road shutout and NYCFC’s five-goal outburst suggest both teams are worth monitoring as the campaign unfolds. Our model will bank the lessons from this solitary graded match and return with a broader forecast slate next round.
