Premier League Matchweek 4 runs from September 12 to September 14, delivering ten fixtures across the weekend. The opening weeks of the 2026 campaign have left several established sides scrambling for form, with Tottenham Hotspur and Aston Villa both searching for their first goals and Liverpool trying to snap a streak of draws. Our forecasting model has processed the data for the early matches, laying out its expectations for the round.
Tottenham look to break their duck against Everton
Tottenham's season could hardly have started in a worse fashion. After three games, they have zero goals and just a solitary point, leaving them languishing in the bottom three. Their attacking malaise is compounded by injuries to creative outlets like Xavi Simons, alongside lingering doubts over James Maddison. They host an Everton side that, by contrast, remain unbeaten and have found the net in every league game so far.
Despite the contrasting form, our model leans towards a narrow Tottenham win, though it attaches a cautious, low confidence to the match result. Everton's away record is characterised by a sequence of draws rather than victories, which may offer the hosts a route back into form. The model projects Everton to score the opening goal with moderate confidence, but anticipates Spurs will ultimately claim the points.
Saturday
Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest Aston Villa are yet to register a league goal this season after three goalless outings, but their underlying creation—averaging over three big chances a game—hints that a breakthrough is imminent. They welcome a Nottingham Forest side who have been stodgy rather than spectacular, drawing twice and failing to score in two of their three matches. Our model projects an Aston Villa win with moderate confidence, anticipating a tight game with fewer than 2.5 total goals.
Bournemouth vs Brentford Bournemouth have established themselves as draw specialists on home soil, going unbeaten in their last four here across all competitions. That resilience will be tested by a Brentford side yet to win on the road this season. The hosts have a grim head-to-head record, having never beaten the Bees in ten attempts, although a goalless draw in March suggests the gap is closing. Our model makes a cautious call for a draw, floating a speculative 1-1 exact scoreline as a long shot.
Chelsea vs Hull City Chelsea welcome newly promoted Hull City to Stamford Bridge boasting a perfect historical record in this fixture. The hosts have secured nine wins from nine meetings against Hull, including a 4-0 FA Cup rout last February. Unsurprisingly, our model projects a Chelsea win with high confidence and expects the hosts to score the opening goal.
Crystal Palace vs Ipswich Crystal Palace host Ipswich with both sides looking to correct mixed starts to the campaign. Palace have won two of their last five at Selhurst Park, with both teams finding the net in four of those, pointing to an open game. Ipswich travel on the back of a heavy 5-2 away defeat. While Palace hold the historical upper hand, injuries to squad players like Sarr and Mateta could limit their depth. Our model projects a Crystal Palace win with moderate confidence, expecting more than 2.5 goals in the match.
Liverpool vs Fulham Liverpool return to Anfield looking to kick-start their season after three consecutive draws in all competitions. They face a Fulham side rooted to the foot of the table following three defeats from three. The loss of Cody Gakpo to a muscle problem robs Jürgen Klopp's side of their top scorer, but Fulham’s attacking output has been anaemic on the road, with just one goal in their last five away matches. The model expects a Liverpool win with high confidence.
Sunderland vs Arsenal Saturday's late kickoff sees Sunderland host Arsenal. As a later match, our model's forecast is still to come and will be published closer to kickoff.
Sunday
Coventry vs Brighton Sunday's early action brings Brighton to Coventry. The forecast for this fixture is still to come.
Manchester United vs Manchester City The Manchester derby highlights the Sunday schedule. As a later match, our model has yet to process this fixture, so projections are currently pending.
Monday
Leeds vs Newcastle Matchweek 4 concludes on Monday evening when Leeds host Newcastle. The model's forecast for this encounter will be available closer to the match.
Matchweek 4 has the potential to reshape the early league table. A victory for Liverpool would ease the pressure and push them back toward the top half, while Fulham and Tottenham are in desperate need of points to climb out of the relegation zone. If the model's cautious projections hold, we could see several of the early strugglers finally find their footing.
