The Brazilian Serie A served up a round of shocks in Matchweek 24, headlined by Cruzeiro’s 2-1 victory over title-chasing Flamengo. Our forecasting model found the unpredictable results tough going, correctly calling the match result in only three of the weekend’s ten contests. Here’s how every call measured up against the final scores.
How our forecasts did
Our win-or-draw and both-teams-to-score forecasts led the way, each landing correctly in six of the ten matches. The total goals calls split the difference with five correct, while the first team to score market saw four accurate forecasts. The outright match result proved far trickier, with just three successful calls. At the tail end, only two exact scorelines were predicted correctly, and the half-time/full-time double fell even flatter, with a single correct call from ten attempts.
Results
Fluminense 2-1 Remo
Remo scored first against the run of our forecast, but the overall outcome of a Fluminense win, the over 2.5 goals, both teams scoring, and even the exact 2-1 scoreline were all correctly called.
Internacional 0-0 Atletico-MG
Our model’s low-confidence call for an Atletico-MG victory never materialised in a drab goalless draw. The only forecast to land was the expectation of fewer than 2.5 goals; everything else, from the match result to both teams scoring, missed the mark.
Cruzeiro 2-1 Flamengo
In the round’s standout result, Cruzeiro defied a medium-confidence forecast for a Flamengo away win. The model did correctly foresee both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals, but Flamengo’s failure to win – or even draw – meant the match result and win-or-draw calls were both wrong.
RB Bragantino 1-0 Gremio
This was the model’s cleanest performance of the round. A high-confidence call that RB Bragantino would open the scoring proved spot on, and the forecast of a 1-0 home win – with fewer than 2.5 goals and at least one side kept scoreless – landed in full.
Palmeiras 4-1 Vasco DA Gama
Palmeiras swatted aside Vasco da Gama far more emphatically than our model anticipated. The high-confidence home win and first-scorer calls were correct, but the medium-confidence forecast of under 2.5 goals and at least one clean sheet was blown apart by a five-goal thriller.
Vitoria 0-2 Bahia
Vitoria’s home fortress crumbled as Bahia ran out 2-0 winners, overturning a cautious home-win forecast. The model did correctly flag that a draw was unlikely and that the match would stay under 2.5 goals, but the Vitoria clean sheet and both-teams-to-score calls were wide of the mark.
Chapecoense-sc 1-0 Sao Paulo
In perhaps the round’s biggest upset, rock-bottom Chapecoense defeated Sao Paulo 1-0, rendering every single one of our seven forecasts incorrect. The model had given Sao Paulo a medium-confidence edge, but the home side’s defensive resilience and the low-scoring nature of the game caught it out completely.
Santos 1-1 Mirassol
Santos were held to a 1-1 draw at home by Mirassol, thwarting a medium-confidence home-win forecast. The model correctly called that both teams would score, but the prediction of over 2.5 goals and a Santos opener fell short.
Coritiba 2-1 Corinthians
Coritiba’s 2-1 win over Corinthians was another match where our forecasts misfired. The low-confidence call for an away win and the medium-confidence total-goals under 2.5 both failed, although the model did get both teams to score right.
Botafogo 2-3 Atletico Paranaense
The round concluded with another upset as Atletico Paranaense left Botafogo with a 3-2 defeat. Our model had seen a winner as likely and correctly picked the visitors to score first, but the low-confidence home win call and the under 2.5 goals projection were both undone by a five-goal contest.
What we got wrong
The round’s biggest miss was Chapecoense’s 1-0 triumph over Sao Paulo. Our analysis had noted that while the hosts were missing four regular starters, Sao Paulo arrived with a far less depleted squad – an edge the model expected to decide the contest. Instead, Chapecoense’s defence held firm in a match that produced none of the goals or attacking control the forecast anticipated.
Cruzeiro’s 2-1 win over Flamengo similarly upended a forecast built on the visitors’ status as the league’s best away side. The model acknowledged that injuries to Flamengo’s back line could cause problems, but still gave them a medium-confidence nod to win. The match showed that those absentees mattered more than the data suggested, as Cruzeiro punished them twice. Palmeiras’s 4-1 demolition of Vasco also stung: the high-confidence home win was never in doubt, but the medium-confidence call for under 2.5 goals and a clean sheet was shattered, reminding us that even the firmest defensive trends can be overridden on the day.
Matchweek 24 reshuffled the deck in Brazil, with Cruzeiro’s upset of Flamengo tightening the top and Chapecoense’s shock win offering a lifeline from the bottom. For our model, it was a sobering round that underscored the volatility of a league where injury-hit underdogs can still bite.
