The Eredivisie's fourth matchweek delivered a statement win for PSV Eindhoven, a 6-1 demolition of Utrecht, while Feyenoord stumbled to a 2-2 home draw with ADO Den Haag. Our forecasting model had a mixed round: it nailed every over 2.5 goals call but missed a series of high-confidence match result and first-team-to-score projections.
â## How our forecasts did
Exact scoreline proved the most difficult, with just one correct call from nine attempts. First team to score also struggled, landing five of nine. The half-time and full-time forecasts hit five of nine, while match result returned six correct outcomes from nine graded matches. Win or draw calls fared better, with seven correct.
The brighter spots were both teams to score, which hit eight of nine, and total goals, which went a perfect nine for nine â the modelâs strongest performance of the round.
â## Friday
Groningen 2-3 Fortuna Sittard
Our model was bullish on a Groningen victory, but Fortuna Sittard stunned the Euroborg with a 3-2 win. The over 2.5 goals and both teams to score calls landed, but the high-confidence match result and first-team-to-score forecasts both missed.
â## Saturday
Excelsior 2-1 Sparta Rotterdam
The model completely nailed this Rotterdam derby, predicting exactly a 2-1 home win with Excelsior ahead at the break and full-time, and all other supporting calls correct.
AZ Alkmaar 5-2 GO Ahead Eagles
AZ Alkmaarâs thrashing of Go Ahead Eagles saw the model correctly call the winner, the goal glut, and AZ opening the scoring, though the exact scoreline was off.
PEC Zwolle 1-3 NEC Nijmegen
NEC Nijmegenâs win at PEC Zwolle validated the modelâs call for an away victory and a high-scoring affair, though the exact scoreline and half-time pattern missed.
â## Sunday
Utrecht 1-6 PSV Eindhoven
PSV recovered from conceding an early Utrecht goal to win 6-1, costing the model a high-confidence first-team-to-score call, but the win, goal total, and both teams to score all landed.
Feyenoord 2-2 ADO Den Haag
Feyenoordâs draw with ADO Den Haag was the roundâs biggest upset, with the modelâs high-confidence home win and first-team-to-score calls both wrong. The over 2.5 goals and both teams to score forecasts were correct, and the win-or-draw safety net landed.
Willem II 2-2 Heerenveen
The medium-confidence call for a Heerenveen win fell flat as Willem II earned a draw. Only the over 2.5 goals and both teams to score forecasts were correct.
Telstar 0-4 Ajax
Ajax cruised to a 4-0 win at Telstar, with the model correctly calling the winner, the goal rush, and Ajax to open the scoring, but both teams to score missed as the hosts drew a blank.
Cambuur 1-4 Twente
Twenteâs victory at Cambuur saw the model get the result, the goal total, and both teams to score right, though the exact scoreline was off.
â## What we got wrong: Feyenoord and Groningen upset the form book
The roundâs biggest misses came from two high-confidence home wins that never materialised. The model was firm on Feyenoord beating a newly promoted ADO Den Haag side that had lost three straight and conceded nine goals, but the hostsâ habit of drawing at De Kuip â now four draws in their last five there â struck again. Feyenoordâs inability to kill the game after going ahead was something the modelâs reasoning did not account for.
Groningenâs 3-2 loss to Fortuna Sittard similarly stung. The model leaned on their lively start and all-action style, expecting them to outscore a Fortuna side lacking the same attacking numbers. Instead, the visitors grabbed the goals and the points. On the first-team-to-score front, the modelâs high-confidence calls for PSV and Feyenoord to open the scoring were undone by early strikes from Utrecht and ADO Den Haag, contributing to the low five-from-nine return on that topic.
âMatchweek 4 tightened the picture at the top, with PSV and Ajax flexing their muscles while Feyenoord lost ground. The modelâs perfect record on total goals reinforced its strength in identifying open games, but the misses on match results underline the Eredivisieâs capacity for surprises.
