Eerste Divisie Matchweek 2 delivered one of the most jarring early-season results in recent memory, as De Graafschap were thrashed at home by Jong AZ on a night that also undid the forecast model’s most confident calls. The site’s forecasts went two-for-three on match results and win-or-draw calls, but the round will be remembered for the handful of high‑confidence projections that fell flat.
How our forecasts did
The model graded forecasts across seven topics for the three fixtures it covered. It enjoyed a clean sweep on two of them — total goals and both teams to score, where all three calls landed — and posted a respectable two of three on match result and win or draw. However, the round turned sour on the more granular predictions. First team to score managed only one correct call from three, exact scoreline failed entirely (zero from three), and half‑time and full‑time also landed just once in three attempts.
Results
Almere City FC got their home campaign off to a flying start with a 3-1 win over Jong PSV U21. No forecasts were issued for this fixture.
MVV left it late to snatch a 3-2 victory at FC Eindhoven. The model did not produce any calls here.
Heracles edged a five-goal thriller against Den Bosch, winning 3-2 in front of their own supporters. This match was not among the forecasted games.
VVV Venlo spoiled NAC Breda’s afternoon with a clinical 2-0 away success. No forecasts were published for this contest.
Roda made it back-to-back home wins with a 2-1 result over Helmond Sport. The model had no calls on this one.
Waalwijk and Dordrecht could not be separated, sharing the points in a 2-2 draw. It was another fixture without any model forecasts.
FC Volendam cruised to a comfortable 3-0 home win against FC OSS. The match fell outside the coverage list.
De Graafschap suffered a stunning 2-5 home collapse against Jong AZ. The model had placed a firm high-confidence call on a home win, as well as on De Graafschap scoring first, but Jong AZ tore that script apart inside 45 minutes. The total goals and both teams to score projections both came in, yet a home win or draw — also a medium‑confidence forecast — never looked likely.
Jong Ajax and Emmen produced a ten-goal spectacle, with Emmen running out 6-4 winners. The model accurately forecast an away win and more than 2.5 goals, while its belief that a draw was the least likely outcome proved correct. Emmen did not score first, however, and the exact scoreline and half‑time/full‑time calls both missed.
Vitesse continued their perfect record against Jong Utrecht with a 3-1 away victory. The model’s medium-confidence forecast for a Vitesse win, both teams to score, and more than 2.5 goals all hit the mark, as did the call that Vitesse would open the scoring. The half‑time/full‑time projection — level at the break and Vitesse winning — was also correct, but the exact scoreline call of 1-2 fell one goal short.
What we got wrong
The most bruising miss of the round came from De Graafschap v Jong AZ. The analysis had highlighted De Graafschap’s dominant opening‑week display, where 64 per cent possession and 16 shots pointed to a side about to kick on. Jong AZ, by contrast, had barely created a chance in their own opener and had a habit of conceding late. All of that pointed to a straightforward home assignment, yet Jong AZ flipped the narrative emphatically, exploiting space and punishing defensive errors on their way to a 5-2 away triumph. The model’s high‑confidence first‑team‑to‑score call also fell apart, as Jong AZ struck the opening goal against the run of expectation.
Elsewhere, the exact‑scoreline projections endured a blank round. The closest was the Jong Utrecht v Vitesse call of 1-2, which ended 1-3, but the other two were well off the mark on a weekend when several games swung wildly beyond the anticipated margins.
What the round changed
Two matchdays into the Eerste Divisie season and the table is already throwing up surprises. De Graafschap’s heavy home defeat will raise questions about the solidity they were supposed to have, while Jong AZ’s youthful side has served notice that they can hurt teams on the road. For the forecast model, a round that started with two perfect topics ended with a stark reminder of how brutal the game can be when a favourite fails to show up.
