The Eerste Divisie delivered a Matchweek 4 full of goals and a couple of shock results, with VVV Venlo’s 4-0 demolition of previously flawless Emmen and FC Volendam’s 6-1 mauling of Dordrecht the standout headlines. Our forecasting model read the goal markets brilliantly, landing a flawless ten from ten on total goals and nine on both teams to score, but the finer details proved far more stubborn: only two exact scorelines and four half-time/full-time calls were correct across the ten fixtures.
How our forecasts did
The model’s poorest showing came in the exact scoreline market, where it managed to pick just two of ten correctly. Half-time and full-time predictions fared only a little better at four correct, while first team to score landed exactly half the time with five hits. On the brighter side, the total goals call was perfect — every single match saw more than 2.5 goals, and the model confidently predicted that in all ten. Both teams to score was almost as reliable, missing only in VVV Venlo’s shutout of Emmen, and the win-or-draw market returned nine correct from ten. Match result calls found six winners, reflecting an unpredictable weekend where several favourites faltered.
Results
Friday
Den Bosch 1-4 Vitesse
A result that surprised our model, which had cautiously called a home win. Vitesse raced into a commanding lead and, while the model’s high-confidence both-teams-to-score call landed, the match result and first-team-to-score projections both went the wrong way. The prediction that the draw was the least likely outcome proved accurate.
FC Volendam 6-1 Dordrecht
The model’s medium-confidence call for a home win was well-founded, but the margin exceeded all expectations. Every forecast bar the exact scoreline was correct, with both teams to score and the opening goal going Volendam’s way as projected.
Jong Ajax 3-2 Helmond Sport
A thriller that the model read well. Both teams to score was a firm call that came in, and the prediction of a home win and the match producing more than 2.5 goals were also on the money. The exact scoreline was the only miss.
Jong AZ 1-2 MVV
MVV continued their perfect start with a narrow victory, exactly as the model’s low-confidence result call suggested. The exact scoreline projection of 1-2 was one of the weekend’s two successful calls, and both teams to score also landed. The half-time/full-time forecast, which had the teams level at the interval, missed the mark.
FC OSS 2-1 Jong Utrecht
A basement battle that went the way of our cautious home-win call. The model went one better, nailing the 2-1 exact scoreline — the second such success of the round. Only the first team to score and the half-time/full-time calls, which backed the visitors to open the scoring and the match to be level at half-time, were wrong.
Roda 2-2 NAC Breda
The model was bullish on NAC Breda’s attacking numbers, calling a narrow away win, but Roda held firm for a draw in a game where the draw was deemed the least likely outcome. Four of the seven forecasts missed, including the half-time/full-time and first team to score calls; only the goals-based projections landed.
Waalwijk 2-2 Jong PSV U21
Another draw where a home win had been the call, albeit with low confidence. The model’s high-confidence both-teams-to-score prediction was met, and its reading that the game would go over 2.5 goals was correct, but the half-time and result calls fell short.
Saturday
De Graafschap 1-4 Almere City FC
The model’s medium-confidence away win landed emphatically. A high-confidence call for both teams to score and for Almere to open the scoring were correct, though the half-time/full-time forecast of Almere ahead at the break and winning was undone because De Graafschap scored first. The exact scoreline projection of 1-2 was also too conservative.
Sunday
FC Eindhoven 1-3 Heracles
Heracles made it four wins from four with a comfortable victory, just as the model forecast. A high-confidence call for more than 2.5 goals and for both teams to score were met, and the half-time/full-time projection of Heracles leading at the break and winning was correct. Only the exact scoreline — called as 1-2 — missed.
VVV Venlo 4-0 Emmen
The round’s biggest upset. Our model had seen Emmen’s perfect start and attacking potency and called a low-confidence away win, with both teams to score a firm prediction. Instead, VVV Venlo kept a clean sheet and ran out four-goal winners. Every forecast on this match bar the win-or-draw call was incorrect, making it the model’s most damaging single fixture of the weekend.
What we got wrong
No contest: VVV Venlo versus Emmen. The analysis pointed to Emmen’s three-from-three start, the division’s most potent attack, and VVV’s defensive alarm bells — they were shipping over 20 shots per game at home — and concluded that an away win with both teams scoring was the most likely picture. The reality was a complete role reversal: Emmen failed to score, VVV Venlo produced their most disciplined defensive display of the season, and the 4-0 scoreline was the round’s most jarring result. The miss dragged down the both-teams-to-score tally from a possible perfect ten and contributed to the poor showing in the exact scoreline and half-time categories.
Elsewhere, the model’s insistence on a winner in the Roda v NAC Breda and Waalwijk v Jong PSV contests ignored the resilience of both home sides, who battled to draws. And the first team to score market, landing only five times, highlighted how frequently the opening goal went against the pre-match narrative.
What the round changed
MVV and Heracles remain the only sides with a 100 % record after four matches, setting up an early-season top-of-the-table narrative. VVV Venlo’s shock win over Emmen breathes life into their campaign and halts Emmen’s charge. FC Volendam’s six-goal outburst propels them into the promotion conversation, while Vitesse and Almere City’s big away wins underline their credentials. After a weekend where every single match cleared the 2.5-goal mark, one thing is clear: the Eerste Divisie is delivering entertainment in abundance.
