Primeira Liga Matchweek 3 gets underway on Saturday 22 August and stretches across an extended international-period schedule that ends on 10 September. Nine matches are on the card, and the early story is the flawless start made by Marítimo, who sit top with two wins and no goals conceded, while Estoril and Rio Ave are still hunting for their first three points. Our forecasting model has produced its calls for two of the early kick-offs; the remaining fixtures, including those of title contenders Sporting, Porto and Benfica, will be analysed closer to their dates.
The pick of the round: Marítimo aim for three in a row
The Madeira club have been the surprise package of the first two weekends. A 1-0 home result and a 2-1 away success reflect an organised 4-2-3-1 system that has given them control defensively while they have taken their chances well. Now they host an Académico Viseu side that is still finding its level after a home defeat and a lively 2-2 draw on the road. Our model expects Marítimo to make it three wins from three, with a moderate level of confidence in a home victory. It also leans towards the hosts opening the scoring and suggests the match will be a tight one, with fewer than 2.5 goals a likely outcome – the exact-scoreline call of 1-0, though, remains a speculative one. Académico Viseu have shown they can cause problems going forward, but the defensive solidity of the home team is the strongest formline heading into this contest.
Saturday
Estoril vs Rio Ave (17:00) – One of the two sides here will collect their first win of the campaign, and the model’s money is on Estoril to do it at home. Rio Ave are yet to score in their two matches, and their expected-goals numbers barely cross 0.5 per game, so the high-confidence call that at least one team will fail to find the net feels well grounded. The model favours a narrow Estoril victory and sees fewer than 2.5 goals, a pattern that chimes with the visitors’ bluntness in attack. A draw would not shock anyone, but everything points towards the hosts edging it.
Sporting CP vs Alverca (19:30) – The champions face promoted Alverca, but our forecast for this match is still to be generated. The model will produce its calls closer to kick-off on Saturday evening.
Sunday
Guimarães vs Nacional (14:30) – A mid-afternoon kick-off on the mainland. Our analysis for this fixture will be available nearer the weekend; for now, the model has yet to release its forecasts.
Santa Clara vs Famalicão (17:00) – Another match where the calls are pending. Both sides will look to build on their opening results, and we’ll have the model’s view in the build-up to Sunday.
FC Porto vs Arouca (19:30) – The late Sunday slot features Porto at home. This is one of the marquee ties of the round, but the forecast will be published closer to the fixture, so check back for the model’s read on it.
Monday
Gil Vicente vs Casa Pia (19:15) – The final game of the main weekend block. Again, our forecast is still to come.
Later fixtures
Two matches in this round have been moved to September because of European commitments or international breaks. Moreirense vs Benfica (9 September) and Estrela vs SC Braga (10 September) will be previewed once the model processes them nearer the time.
A clean sweep of early points could keep Marítimo top of the table heading into September, but with the big guns entering the frame later in the round, the standings could look very different by the time the last ball is kicked.
