The Primeira Liga's fourth matchweek saw the traditional powers flex their muscles, with Sporting CP, FC Porto and Benfica all recording victories. The round's standout result was a 4-0 demolition of Rio Ave by Sporting, while Porto eased past Academico Viseu 3-0 and Benfica were made to work for a 2-1 win over Estoril. Our model's forecasts had a mixed weekend, with the win or draw calls proving the most reliable.
How our forecasts did
The model's forecasts were graded across nine fixtures. The win or draw calls led the way, landing seven times out of nine. Both teams to score was similarly successful, also correct in seven of the nine matches. First team to score managed six correct calls, while match result, total goals, and half-time/full-time each posted five correct predictions. The exact scoreline forecasts were a complete miss, with none of the nine scorelines matching the final result.
Results
Rio Ave 0-4 Sporting CP
The model had high confidence in a Sporting win, and the champions delivered. All seven forecasts were graded, with the match result, win or draw, total goals (more than 2.5), both teams to score (at least one side kept off the scoresheet), first team to score (Sporting), and half-time/full-time (Sporting ahead at the break and winning) all correct. The exact scoreline call of 0-2 was too conservative, as Sporting ran out 4-0 winners.
Alverca 1-1 Santa Clara
This was a tricky one. The model gave a low-confidence call for a Santa Clara win, but Alverca held them to a draw. The win or draw forecast for Santa Clara landed, and both teams to score and fewer than 2.5 goals were also correct. However, the match result, first team to score, exact scoreline, and half-time/full-time calls all missed. Santa Clara's defensive solidity, as noted in the analysis, was breached once, and Alverca's search for a first win continues.
Arouca 2-1 Maritimo
The model correctly called a medium-confidence Arouca win, and the match result landed. The win or draw call (a winner either way, with the draw the least likely outcome) also came good. Both teams to score was correct, and the half-time/full-time call of level at the break and Arouca winning it was spot on. However, the total goals forecast of fewer than 2.5 was wrong as three goals were scored, and the exact scoreline 1-0 missed. Maritimo's late threat, mentioned in the analysis, saw them pull one back but not enough.
Academico Viseu 0-3 FC Porto
Another high-confidence away win that materialised. The match result, win or draw, both teams to score (at least one side kept off the scoresheet), first team to score, and half-time/full-time all landed. The total goals call of fewer than 2.5 was beaten by Porto's three goals, and the 0-1 exact scoreline was too cautious.
Nacional 2-3 Estrela
This was the model's biggest stumble of the weekend. The model had medium confidence in a Nacional win and even high confidence they would score first, which they did. But the match result, win or draw, total goals (fewer than 2.5), both teams to score (at least one side kept off the scoresheet), and half-time/full-time all went wrong. Only the first team to score call was correct. Nacional's formidable home defensive record, with four clean sheets in five, was shattered by Estrela's three goals.
Casa Pia 0-1 Moreirense
The model backed a low-confidence Casa Pia win, but it was Moreirense who took the points. The win or draw call for Casa Pia also failed. However, the high-confidence forecasts for fewer than 2.5 goals and at least one side kept off the scoresheet were correct. The first team to score call (Moreirense) was correct, but the exact scoreline and half-time/full-time missed. The analysis noted Casa Pia were rock bottom and vulnerable, but Moreirense's away frailties didn't stop them.
Famalicao 0-0 GIL Vicente
The model's low-confidence Famalicao win was wrong, but the win or draw call for Famalicao landed thanks to the draw. The total goals fewer than 2.5 and both teams to score (at least one side kept off the scoresheet) were correct, and the half-time/full-time call of level at the break and the points shared was spot on. The first team to score call (Famalicao) missed in a goalless draw.
Benfica 2-1 Estoril
Benfica's high-confidence win was correctly predicted. The win or draw, total goals more than 2.5, both teams to score, first team to score, and half-time/full-time all landed. The exact scoreline of 2-0 was off by one goal as Estoril scored. The analysis highlighted Benfica's attacking firepower, which showed with two goals, but Estoril found a consolation.
SC Braga 1-0 Guimaraes
The Minho derby saw the model correctly call a medium-confidence Braga win. The win or draw and first team to score calls landed. However, the total goals more than 2.5, both teams to score, and half-time/full-time (Braga ahead at the break and winning) were incorrect. The exact scoreline 2-1 also missed. Braga's defensive solidity at home held, and a single goal settled it.
What we got wrong
The round's biggest miss came in Madeira, where the model leaned heavily on Nacional's home form — four clean sheets in five — to back a home win. Instead, Estrela scored three times and left with all the points. The analysis had noted Estrela's struggles on the road, but they overturned that narrative. Similarly, the model's low-confidence call for a Casa Pia victory looked optimistic against a Moreirense side that had been poor away, but the hosts' dreadful form (zero goals, a 7-0 home defeat) proved too heavy a burden. The model's preference for fewer than 2.5 goals in that match was correct, but the result went the wrong way.
Matchweek 4 reinforced the hierarchy at the top, with Sporting, Porto, and Benfica all maintaining their early momentum. The Minho derby win kept Braga in the chasing pack, while the struggles of Nacional and Casa Pia highlighted the fine margins in the Primeira Liga's lower half.
