Levante vs Athletic Club: Athletic Club Missing Four

LevanteLEV

La Liga

Wed 21 Oct · 18:00

Estadio Ciudad de Valencia

Valencia

Athletic ClubBIL

AI Forecasts

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Levante welcome Athletic Club to the Ciudad de Valencia hoping to arrest a two-match winless slide, though their home contests have been chaotic affairs producing eight goals across two outings. The visitors arrive without a win in their last two league matches, but their underlying numbers — particularly in chance creation — suggest they have been a touch unfortunate and carry more threat than their recent results imply. Historically this has been a punishing fixture for the Valencian side, who have failed to beat Athletic in any of their ten league meetings, and they will need to tighten a defence that has been breached heavily in the opening stages of matches to change that narrative. The midfield battle between Levante's 4-1-4-1 block and Athletic's 4-2-3-1 transitional play, spearheaded by their relatively high big-chance output, looks the key area that will decide whether the hosts can finally break their duck in this head-to-head.

Match ResultAway Win45%

Athletic Club have won seven of the ten league meetings between these sides and arrive with superior underlying creation numbers and a stronger squad rating, while Levante are winless in two and sit 17th in the competition's true quality table.

Win or DrawAway or Draw76%

Levante have scored in every home match this season with an average of 3.5 goals at this ground, though their inability to keep a clean sheet at home and a historically poor record against this opponent make avoiding defeat a tall order.

Total Goals3 or more goals54%

Levante's home matches have seen over 2.5 goals land in three of their last four, and their defensive vulnerability combines with Athletic's positive rolling xG to push this above the league's baseline.

Levante vs Athletic Club: Athletic Club Missing Four

Updated Wed 14 Oct

Levante host Athletic Club in La Liga on Wednesday, 21 October 2026 at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, with the visiting side missing four injured regulars.

Athletic Club missing Nico Williams and three others

Athletic Club enter this match without Aymeric Laporte, Nico Williams, Oihan Sancet, and Unai Eguiluz, who are all ruled out with injuries. Despite those absences, the club sit 10th in La Liga with eight points from six matches. Robert Navarro is their top scorer this season with two goals across all competitions. Over their last five matches with chance data, Athletic Club have generated 1.67 expected goals per game while allowing 1.27.

Levante concede 2.52 expected goals a game

Levante sit 17th in La Liga with six points from seven fixtures and a goal difference of minus four, having scored 11 and conceded 15. In their three home matches in the division, they have recorded one win, one draw, and one defeat, scoring 10 goals and conceding nine. Those fixtures include a 5-2 victory against Real Betis on 29 August 2026, a 2-4 defeat to Barcelona on 13 September 2026, and a 3-3 draw with Sevilla on 12 October 2026. Across their last five matches with chance data, Levante have conceded an average of 2.52 expected goals a game while creating 1.77. Top scorer Roger Brugué has three goals in all competitions. Hugo Sotelo is sidelined with an injury, while Etta Eyong is listed as doubtful.

Athletic Club won both meetings in the 2025-26 season

Athletic Club won both of the recent head-to-head encounters between these teams, securing a 2-0 away victory on 29 November 2025 before recording a 4-2 win on 8 February 2026. Athletic Club arrive in Valencia after drawing their previous two league fixtures, finishing 1-1 at home to Elche on 12 September 2026 and 0-0 at home against Alaves on 19 September 2026.

Our model expects an Athletic Club win

Our forecasting model expects an Athletic Club win. The forecast is supported by Levante's defensive numbers, having conceded 15 goals in seven league games and allowed 2.52 expected goals per match over their last five. However, Athletic Club must manage the loss of Laporte, Williams, and Sancet while seeking their first win in three matches.

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