Benfica vs Celtic

Benfica host Celtic in UEFA Europa League League Stage Matchweek 2 on Thursday, 15 October 2026, at Estádio da Luz in Lisbon, with the Scottish club missing four players through injury.

Four Celtic absentees at Estádio da Luz

Alistair Johnston, Callum Osmand, Cameron Carter-Vickers, and Yang Hyun-Jun are all ruled out with injuries for Celtic. The visitors sit 28th of 36 in the Europa League table after losing 3-1 at home to Ferencvarosi TC on 17 September. Although Celtic won 2-0 away at Motherwell on 11 October, their defensive unit travels without two established defenders. Their top scorer in all competitions is Camilo Durán with six goals, but they have allowed 1.28 expected goals per game over their last five matches with chance data.

Benfica enter in seventh after Milan victory

Benfica opened their European campaign with a 2-0 away victory at AC Milan on 16 September and sit seventh in the table with three points and a plus-two goal difference. The Lisbon side prepared for this fixture with a 2-0 home victory against Vitória SC on 11 October, their fourth win in five matches across all competitions. Striker Vangelis Pavlidis leads the attack with eight goals this season. The Portuguese club will be without injured pair Enzo Barrenechea and Jakub Kamiński, but their underlying numbers remain strong, generating 2.20 expected goals while conceding 0.89 per game over their last five matches with chance data.

Our model firmly expects a Benfica win

Our forecasting model firmly expects a Benfica win. Benfica hold a clear defensive and attacking advantage in chance quality, generating 2.20 expected goals per game to Celtic's 1.85 while conceding 0.89 compared to Celtic's 1.28. With Celtic missing Cameron Carter-Vickers and Alistair Johnston in defence, and Benfica carrying form from their opening 2-0 win in Milan, the data supports the home team at Estádio da Luz.