Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen

Lech Poznan meet Bayer Leverkusen in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday, 15 October 2026 at Stadion Poznan, with the German side arriving unbeaten in their last five matches.

Bayer Leverkusen generate 2.26 expected goals per game

The visitors sit 8th in the Europa League table with three points from their opening fixture, having beaten Celje 2-0 on 16 September 2026. Over their last five games with chance data, Bayer Leverkusen have generated an average of 2.26 expected goals while conceding 1.22. That offensive output showed again on 10 October 2026 in a 4-3 Bundesliga away win over FSV Mainz 05, following a 2-0 home victory against RB Leipzig on 20 September 2026 and a 2-2 draw at FC Augsburg on 12 September 2026. Patrik Schick leads their attack with five goals across all competitions this season.

Lech Poznan missing four players after opening defeat

Lech Poznan sit 35th of 36 teams in the competition table after opening the league stage with a 4-0 defeat away to Crystal Palace on 17 September 2026. The Polish side must adjust their lineup due to four missing squad members. Alex Douglas, Ali Gholizadeh, and João Moutinho remain out through injury, while Radosław Murawski serves a suspension. Allahyar Sayyadmanesh also faces four weeks out with a hamstring problem sustained in training. Patrik Wålemark is the hosts' top scorer with two goals in all competitions, leading an attack that has created 1.74 expected goals per game across their last three matches with chance data while conceding 1.16.

Five injuries reduce Leverkusen options

The away side also travel with several absences. Christian Kofane, Eliesse Ben Seghir, Guéla Doué, Kennet Eichhorn, and Montrell Culbreath are all sidelined with injuries. Kofane had scored three goals in six competitive appearances before sustaining a muscle problem. Even so, the German club demonstrated depth in their earlier 4-0 league win over Union Berlin on 5 September 2026.

Our model expects a Bayer Leverkusen win

Our model expects a Bayer Leverkusen win, rating the outcome with medium confidence. Leverkusen's run of four wins and one draw across their last five matches supports that view, powered by Patrik Schick's five goals and 2.26 expected goals per game. Lech Poznan enter with a negative four goal difference from their opening match and face selection issues with Radosław Murawski suspended alongside three injured teammates.