Championship Matchweek 5 Results: Preston Stun Blackburn

The Championship's Matchweek 5 delivered an upset at Deepdale and a statement win for Stoke City, capping a weekend where our forecasting model landed exactly half of its match result calls. As early-season patterns face their first real tests, several strong home records were broken while others were firmly solidified.

How our forecasts did

Ten of the 12 win or draw calls proved correct, making it our most successful topic of the weekend. First team to score saw seven of the 12 land, while six of the 12 match result projections and six of the 12 total goals calls were right. Both teams to score recorded five correct calls from 12 graded. Half-time and full-time yielded four correct forecasts, and the exact scoreline topic proved the most difficult, with just one of the 12 calls landing.

Results

Lincoln 1-1 Southampton Southampton brought the division's sharpest attacking numbers to Sincil Bank, but Lincoln's deep block held them to a draw, defeating our medium-confidence call for an away win. The forecast for Southampton to score the opening goal was correct.

Preston 2-1 Blackburn Winless Preston came into this Lancashire derby having shipped nine goals in four outings, yet they turned over Blackburn at Deepdale to upend our cautious projection for an away victory.

Stoke City 4-0 Charlton Stoke entered the weekend at the foot of the table after three straight defeats but swept aside Charlton. Our cautious call for a home win was correct, as the bet365 Stadium continues to be a refuge for the hosts.

Burnley 1-2 Bristol City Burnley's wait for a first win of the campaign goes on. We had cautiously called a draw, noting Burnley's sequence of home ties, but unbeaten Bristol City took the points at Turf Moor to defeat the forecast.

Millwall 4-0 Bolton Our medium-confidence forecast for a Millwall win landed comfortably at The Den, with Bolton remaining without an away victory. The model also correctly called Millwall to be ahead at the break and win it.

Portsmouth 2-0 Cardiff Portsmouth secured their first home points of the season against a winless Cardiff side, fulfilling our cautious projection for a home win.

QPR 0-1 Middlesbrough QPR's unbeaten start ended at Loftus Road despite our cautious backing for a home win, as Middlesbrough found a way past a previously resilient defence.

Sheffield Utd 1-3 Norwich Norwich had failed to score on their previous two trips but found their form here, comfortably beating Sheffield United and overturning our medium-confidence call for a home win. Our firm forecast for more than 2.5 goals in the match was correct.

West Brom 1-0 Watford Our medium-confidence projection for a West Brom win proved correct, and we also successfully called the 1-0 exact scoreline. Watford's away struggles continue.

West Ham 3-0 Derby A fluent West Ham side dispatched Derby at the London Stadium, vindicating our medium-confidence call for a home win and our firm projection for more than 2.5 goals.

Swansea 0-0 Wrexham Swansea's dominant possession at the Liberty Stadium could not break down Wrexham. Our medium-confidence call for a Swansea win missed, though the cautious projection for fewer than 2.5 goals in the match was correct.

Birmingham 2-2 Wolves Our cautious call for a draw landed exactly, as Birmingham's streak of drawing at St Andrew's continued against a free-scoring Wolves side.

What we got wrong

Our model struggled with a number of home sides who had shown defensive resilience but failed to hold out this weekend. QPR had conceded only once in two outings at Loftus Road and were unbeaten in four matches, leading to our call for a home win against Middlesbrough. However, Boro's underlying strength prevailed despite the absence of top scorer Jeremy Sarmiento.

Similarly, Sheffield United's unbeaten start and ability to stay in games led to a medium-confidence forecast for a home win. The model was concerned by Norwich's away form—having conceded four and scored none in two previous trips—but the visitors' underlying chance creation translated into three goals, breaking the Blades' resilience. Southampton's draw at Lincoln also frustrated our medium-confidence call; the model relied heavily on Southampton's expected goals figure of above two per game, but Lincoln's 5-3-2 shape successfully restricted the visitors to a single goal.

Matchweek 5 highlighted the difficulty of relying on early-season defensive records, with several unbeaten starts coming to an end. Teams like West Brom and Millwall have cemented their home advantage, while others are still searching for the right formula as the table begins to take shape.

Championship Matchweek 5 Predictions: Saints Test Lincoln

The Championship Matchweek 5 fixtures, running from September 5 to September 6, 2026, present a crucial twelve-game slate as teams seek to establish their early-season credentials. This weekend's action is defined by a fascinating contrast between high-flying attacks trying to break down stubborn defensive shapes, and struggling sides desperate to secure their first victories of the campaign.

The match of the round: Southampton's attack meets Lincoln's wall

The standout fixture of the weekend sees Southampton travel to Lincoln for an early Saturday kick-off. The visiting side has established themselves as the most potent offensive force in the division, scoring ten goals in their opening four matches. Their underlying metrics back up this output, with our forecasting model tracking an expected goals figure of more than two per game. They have found the net in every single match so far, playing an expansive style that presents a massive test for the home side.

Lincoln, by contrast, will rely heavily on their defensive discipline. They are expected to line up in a compact 5-3-2 shape designed specifically to deny space in the central areas. While this deep-lying defensive system can be frustrating to break down, the home side has struggled to offer much threat in transition. They sit deep in the possession charts and have managed only one goal across their two home outings this season.

Our forecasting model has analyzed these contrasting styles and leans with moderate confidence toward a Southampton win, projecting the visitors to control possession and find a way through. The model also suggests a medium-confidence call for Southampton to score the opening goal. For those looking at more speculative outcomes, the model offers a low-confidence projection of a 2-1 victory for the visitors, which would require Lincoln to find a rare home goal against a dominant side.

Saturday early kick-offs

In the other early Saturday fixtures, a historic local rivalry takes centre stage as Preston host Blackburn. The home side has endured a miserable start to the campaign, sitting winless and rock-bottom of the table after conceding nine goals in their opening four matches. Blackburn arrive with a much steadier, if unspectacular, start to their season. Our model identifies this Lancashire derby as a tight affair, offering a low-confidence projection for a Blackburn win, but shows moderate confidence that both teams to score.