Championship Matchweek 7 delivered a dominant 6-0 victory for West Ham over Wrexham, leading a weekend where our forecasting model enjoyed a highly accurate round. The projections read the division's form well, successfully calling the bulk of the weekend's fundamental outcomes.
How our forecasts did
Our model had a strong reading of the fixtures this weekend. The win or draw projections performed best, with 10 of the 12 calls landing correctly. The match result category was nearly as successful, seeing nine of the 12 calls graded as correct. Our half-time and full-time forecasts and total goals projections both returned seven correct calls from 12. Both teams to score and first team to score proved slightly trickier to navigate, each landing six of the 12 calls. The exact scoreline topic performed worst, missing all 12 of its forecasts.
Friday, 11 September
West Ham 6-0 Wrexham The model correctly made a firm call for a West Ham victory and opening goal, noting their potent early-season form at the London Stadium. Wrexham arrived with a strong defensive away record, having conceded just once in three away trips, but that resilience collapsed completely in the capital.
Saturday, 12 September
Bolton 1-0 Cardiff A cautious projection for a Bolton win proved correct. The model anticipated Cardiff's recent possession dominance would not translate to a clean sheet, and the visitors remain winless without a shutout this season.
Derby 1-2 Birmingham Birmingham extended their unbeaten run to four matches, matching our correct match result call. The model rightly anticipated goals at both ends, noting Derby's struggles at the bottom of the table and the absence of top scorer C. Morris alongside midfielder L. Travis.
West Brom 1-1 QPR Our projection missed the mark here, backing a West Brom win based on their unbeaten home record at The Hawthorns. QPR secured a draw despite the absence of top scorer Ilias Chair, whose omission the model thought would blunt the visitors' attack.
Blackburn 3-1 Millwall Blackburn continued their dominance over Millwall at Ewood Park, matching our cautious match result call. The model successfully projected both teams to score, noting Millwall were missing top scorer Josh Coburn and several regular starters.
Charlton 0-0 Portsmouth The model anticipated a Charlton victory and a high-scoring game, missing on both counts. However, the cautious call for the sides to be level at the break and share the points at full-time landed correctly.
Middlesbrough 4-3 Norwich A seven-goal thriller at the Riverside saw Middlesbrough maintain their perfect home record, fulfilling our match result call. The model accurately projected a high-scoring affair and goals for both sides, citing Norwich's brittle away form and inability to keep a clean sheet on the road.
Preston 0-1 Lincoln Lincoln exploited Preston's defensive vulnerabilities to secure an away win, landing our cautious match result call. The model correctly anticipated Lincoln's compact setup would pose a threat on the break against the bottom-placed hosts.
Southampton 4-1 Bristol City A firm projection for a Southampton win landed comfortably at St Mary's. The model correctly called Southampton to score first, both teams to score, and a high total goals count, reading the hosts' relentless attacking form perfectly.
Swansea 3-1 Burnley Swansea preserved their unbeaten home record at the Liberty, fulfilling our match result call. The model correctly noted Burnley's struggles on the road, where they have been leaking nearly three goals per game.
Watford 1-2 Stoke City A miss for the model, which cautiously backed a Watford victory based on their unbeaten home start. Stoke City found their first away win despite shipping eight goals in their previous three trips.
Sunday, 13 September
Sheffield Utd 0-1 Wolves The weekend concluded at Bramall Lane with a correct cautious call for a Wolves victory. The model noted Sheffield United's inconsistent home form and Wolves' potent attack, which has found the net in every away game this season.
What we got wrong
The model's biggest missteps came from heavily weighting unbeaten home records that ultimately failed to produce victories. At The Hawthorns, the forecast anticipated a West Brom win, expecting QPR's attack to suffer without Ilias Chair. Instead, QPR's stubborn away form held up to force a 1-1 draw, ruining the match result call.
Similarly, the projection leaned on Watford's unbeaten start at Vicarage Road and Stoke City's dreadful away defensive record. The model suspected Stoke's midfield, missing Sam Gallagher, would struggle to control the game. Stoke defied those numbers to claim a 2-1 victory. Charlton's 0-0 draw against Portsmouth also caught the model out on the match result and total goals fronts, though the underlying analysis did warn that Charlton's reliance on last-ditch defending meant a correction was coming.
Matchweek 7 leaves Preston rooted to the bottom of the table, while West Ham and Southampton have firmly established their goalscoring credentials on home turf. Our model successfully navigated most of these underlying shifts, providing a solid baseline of correct fundamental calls heading into the next round of fixtures.
