Ligue 1 Matchweek 3 saw Paris Saint Germain's search for a first win continue as Monaco took the points, in a round where our forecasting model found a perfect run on goalscoring calls but stumbled on several match results.
How our forecasts did
It was a demanding round for our model, with the exact scoreline category proving the most difficult as just one of the nine graded calls landed. The match result forecasts also struggled, with four of the nine graded calls proving correct. The win or draw category resulted in five correct calls from nine, while the half-time and full-time projections yielded three correct calls from nine.
There was far more success to be found in the goals categories. The model produced a flawless record on both teams to score, landing all nine of its graded forecasts. The total goals projections brought six correct calls from nine, and predicting the first team to score also returned six correct forecasts from nine.
Results
Toulouse 0-1 Lille Our model correctly issued a firm call for Lille to score the opening goal, noting their ominous form of five away wins across all competitions. A medium-confidence call for a Lille win and a cautious nod to an exact scoreline of Toulouse 0-1 Lille were also spot on.
Lyon 3-1 Auxerre With Auxerre arriving having shipped eight goals in two games, our model issued a firm call for a Lyon win, which landed comfortably. The medium-confidence calls for both teams to score, more than 2.5 goals in the match, and Lyon to score the opening goal were all correct.
Paris Saint Germain 1-2 Monaco The model firmly expected a Paris Saint Germain win, but it was Monaco who extended their perfect start. Firm calls for both teams to score and more than 2.5 goals in the match were accurate, as was the medium-confidence expectation for Paris Saint Germain to score the opening goal.
Lens 0-1 Lorient Lens had carried formidable home form into the fixture, prompting a firm call for a Lens win that ultimately missed the mark. The model did correctly anticipate at least one side to be kept off the scoresheet, securing a medium-confidence call.
Le Havre 1-2 Stade Brestois 29 Le Havre's grim home form continued against Brest. The model made cautious but correct calls for a Stade Brestois 29 win, Stade Brestois 29 to win or draw, and both teams to score, while a medium-confidence call for Stade Brestois 29 to score the opening goal also landed.
Nice 1-1 Le Mans Nice's early-season goal drought ended, but they had to settle for a point. Cautious calls for Nice to win or draw, both teams to score, and for the match to be level at the break and the points shared all proved correct, alongside a medium-confidence call for fewer than 2.5 goals in the match.
Estac Troyes 2-6 Strasbourg A spectacular match shattered our model's expectations. Cautious calls for both teams to score and for Estac Troyes to score the opening goal were correct, but the goal tally blew past the medium-confidence forecast of fewer than 2.5 goals in the match.
Angers 1-2 Rennes Rennes arrived without a clean sheet but unbeaten, and they took all three points. Medium-confidence calls for a Rennes win, Rennes to win or draw, both teams to score, and Rennes to score the opening goal were all correct, as were cautious calls for more than 2.5 goals in the match and for Rennes to be ahead at the break and Rennes winning it.
Marseille 2-3 Paris FC Marseille fell to defeat against a Paris FC side that arrived yet to concede this season. The model's medium-confidence expectation of a Marseille win was incorrect, though medium-confidence calls for more than 2.5 goals in the match and both teams to score were accurate.
What we got wrong
The model's biggest missteps came from heavily backing dominant home sides whose form deserted them. Lens entered their fixture boasting underlying attacking output of over three expected goals per game, having already recorded a 5-2 home win. Opponents Lorient had managed just one goal in two matches and had failed to score on their travels. That profile led to a firm call for a Lens win and a firm call for Lens to score the opening goal, neither of which materialised as Lorient's compact defensive shape secured a 1-0 victory.
Similarly, Paris Saint Germain's struggles at home were underestimated. While Monaco arrived with maximum points, their away form over a longer horizon had been leaky. The model leaned heavily into that historical away vulnerability, issuing firm calls for a Paris Saint Germain win and Paris Saint Germain to win or draw. Instead, Monaco emerged with a 2-1 win.
In Troyes, the model respected the hosts' conservative 4-3-3 shape, which had yet to concede from open play. That led to a cautious call for a draw and a medium-confidence projection for fewer than 2.5 goals. Strasbourg completely dismantled that defensive record, walking away with a 6-2 victory.
Matchweek 3 provided a stark reminder of how quickly early-season defensive solidity can vanish, while Monaco and Paris FC proved that form strings can be maintained even against the division's strongest home sides.
