Serie A Matchweek 33 arrives with the title race finely balanced, running from 28 October through 31 October 2026 across ten fixtures. League leaders Flamengo hold a single-point advantage over second-placed Palmeiras with six rounds remaining, while pressure mounts at the bottom for sides trying to avoid the drop. The forecasting model has generated calls for the opening five matches of the round, while projections for the later fixtures will appear on each respective match page the day before kickoff.
Match of the round: Santos vs Palmeiras
Palmeiras travel to face Santos knowing that any slip could hand Flamengo daylight at the summit. Abel's title-chasing visitors arrive on the back of three consecutive league victories, having dispatched RB Bragantino 2-0, Atletico Paranaense 2-0 and Corinthians 4-1. With 56 goals scored and only 22 conceded across 32 matches, they possess the tightest defensive record in the top flight, even with Jefté, Paulinho and Ramón Sosa sidelined through injury.
Santos sit eighth on 46 points, aiming to keep pace with the upper positions after drawing 1-1 with Bahia last time out. However, Cuca's squad faces major selection hurdles. The hosts are without six regular starters, including Neymar and goalkeeper Gabriel Brazão due to injury, alongside absences for Arthur and Gonzalo Escobar. Gabriel Barbosa remains their sharpest attacking weapon with 15 goals across all competitions, but the depleted lineup tests their resilience.
Our model leans cautiously towards an away win for Palmeiras, though confidence remains low given Santos's competitiveness on home soil. A speculative scoreline projection points towards a tight 1-0 win for Palmeiras, with both sides expected to contest an open encounter.
Wednesday fixtures
RB Bragantino host bottom-placed Chapecoense looking to arrest a two-game winless run after a 2-0 loss at Palmeiras. Missing Davi Gomes and Gustavinho through injury, as well as Gabriel and goalkeeper Tiago Volpi to suspension, the home side still carry strong backing. Chapecoense have conceded 63 league goals and won just once on the road all season, missing Camilo, Heitor and Rafael Carvalheira. Our model holds high confidence in an RB Bragantino victory, expecting the hosts to find the net first.
Fluminense welcome Internacional looking to protect an impressive home record of eleven wins from sixteen matches. Fluminense have lost three straight games, most recently 2-1 at Chapecoense, and must cope without leading scorer John Kennedy, Alisson and Julián Millán. Internacional arrive fresh from a 3-0 home win over Botafogo, though they sit 16th and have absences in Antonio Sanabria, Benjamin Arhin and Kayky. Our model favours a Fluminense win with medium confidence.
Bahia face Sao Paulo having lost only three times at home all campaign. Bahia drew 1-1 at Santos in their previous outing, though defender Kanu is suspended and Léo Vieira is out injured. Sao Paulo sit ninth with 43 points and hold a poor away record, compounded by injuries to Artur, Aurélio Buta and Danielzinho, along with absences for Domingos Duarte and Iago. The model leans towards a home victory for Bahia with medium confidence.
Remo meet Botafogo in a clash between two sides searching for consistency. Remo sit 19th with 26 points and are without João Lucas, Jáderson and Matheus Felipe, yet seven of their home fixtures have ended level this season. Botafogo, who sit 11th, were beaten 3-0 at Internacional and travel without top scorer Danilo, Arthur Chaves and Jordan Barrera. Our model cautiously projects an away victory for Botafogo, though confidence is low.
Thursday fixtures
Sixth-placed Atlético Mineiro take on third-placed Cruzeiro in a Minas Gerais derby. The hosts have 50 points and enter following a 3-2 defeat at Flamengo, with Everson, Fred and Mateo Cassierra absent. Cruzeiro sit four points higher after back-to-back victories over Remo and Gremio, led by Kaio Jorge's 11 goals this season, though Felipe Morais and Gabriel Pec remain out.
Leaders Flamengo visit 13th-placed Vasco da Gama following three straight victories, including a 3-2 win against Atlético Mineiro. Pedro Guilherme leads the league leaders with 16 goals in all competitions, though Jorge Carrascal is suspended alongside injuries to Danilo and Evertton Araújo. Vasco beat Corinthians 3-2 in their last outing but remain without Carlos Cuesta and Cauan Barros.
Friday fixtures
Gremio host fourth-placed Atletico Paranaense in Porto Alegre. Gremio occupy 17th spot on 34 points after securing a 1-0 victory at Coritiba, though Diego Caito and Jovane Cabral are among those ruled out. Atletico Paranaense have accumulated 54 points and rely heavily on Kevin Viveros, who has scored 21 goals this season, despite absences for Arthur Dias and Claudinho.
Corinthians face Mirassol seeking to climb out of the bottom four. The hosts sit 18th on 33 points after a 3-2 defeat at Vasco da Gama and must manage without the suspended Jesse Lingard and injured defender Gabriel Paulista. Mirassol sit 15th on 37 points following a 1-1 draw with Sao Paulo, with Negueba ruled out.
Saturday fixture
Coritiba host Vitoria to complete the round. Coritiba sit 12th with 39 points but have suffered back-to-back 1-0 defeats against Atlético Mineiro and Gremio, missing Lucas Ronier through injury. Vitoria sit one point behind them in 14th after consecutive 1-1 draws against Corinthians and Atletico Paranaense, with Camutanga, Dudu and Edu unavailable.
With only a single point separating Flamengo and Palmeiras at the top, and five points covering the teams positioned between 14th and 18th, Matchweek 33 has the scope to reshape both the championship chase and the relegation battle.
