Matchweek 11 in the 2. Bundesliga concluded with league leaders Hertha BSC asserting their authority at the top of the table, edging third-placed VfL Wolfsburg 2-1 on Saturday evening. Across the nine fixtures, our forecasting model enjoyed a solid showing on direction, landing six of nine match result calls and seven of nine win-or-draw projections, even as a couple of low-scoring misfires took the shine off the totals.
How our forecasts did
The exact scoreline calls, as usual, proved the hardest to convert, with only one of nine landing: the clean sweep on Hertha BSC's 2-1 victory over VfL Wolfsburg. Half-time and full-time calls also struggled, returning three correct from nine graded.
Both teams to score finished with five correct from nine, weighed down by clean sheets in Lower Saxony and Franconia. On the positive side, the win-or-draw projections led the way, with seven of nine calls proving accurate. First team to score was equally dependable, landing seven of nine times, while match result calls returned six correct from nine. Total goals saw six of the nine calls hit, bolstered by high-scoring matches in Dresden, Bochum, and Magdeburg.
Results
Friday 6 November
Eintracht Braunschweig 0-0 Energie Cottbus
A scoreless stalemate saw all seven forecasts miss. Braunschweig had arrived with back-to-back home victories, but failed to break down a Cottbus side winless in four.
Dynamo Dresden 3-0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Dynamo Dresden produced a dominant showing to lift themselves away from the foot of the table. The projection for a home win, more than 2.5 goals, and Dresden to lead at both intervals all landed comfortably, with only the both-teams-to-score call falling short.
Saturday 7 November
Holstein Kiel 1-2 Arminia Bielefeld
Arminia Bielefeld ended Kiel's unbeaten home run this season. While our low-confidence call for a home win missed, the win-or-draw, total goals, and both-teams-to-score calls all delivered.
1. FC Nürnberg 2-0 SV Darmstadt 98
- FC Nürnberg kept up their pursuit of the top spots, extending Darmstadt's road misery to five straight away defeats. The home win and first team to score landed, though the clean sheet denied the goals projection.
VfL Osnabrück 0-1 1. FC Kaiserslautern
- FC Kaiserslautern took the points in a tight defensive battle. Our cautious call for an away win and Kaiserslautern opening the scoring both landed, though the anticipated total of more than 2.5 goals proved wide of the mark.
Hertha BSC 2-1 VfL Wolfsburg
The match of the weekend provided our model's cleanest performance, sweeping all seven calls. Hertha made it five straight home wins to stay top, leading at the break and hitting the exact 2-1 scoreline projected.
Sunday 8 November
VfL Bochum 3-2 Karlsruher SC
VfL Bochum finally secured their first home league win of the campaign in an entertaining five-goal contest. Calls for a home win, both teams to score, over 2.5 goals, and Bochum striking first all landed.
1. FC Heidenheim 2-2 Hannover 96
Heidenheim extended their unbeaten home run but their overall winless streak stretched to six matches after Hannover fought back for a point. The draw broke our home win call, though the goals calls landed without trouble.
1. FC Magdeburg 4-1 FC St. Pauli
- FC Magdeburg continued their sharp attacking form at home, ending St. Pauli's run of five consecutive away draws in emphatic fashion. Our call for a Magdeburg victory, over 2.5 goals, and both teams finding the net all came in.
What we got wrong
The clearest failure of the weekend came in the round's opening fixture at Braunschweig. The model anticipated goals based on Cottbus's defensive record on the road and Braunschweig's home form, issuing a firm call for over 2.5 goals alongside a home win. Instead, neither side could find a breakthrough in ninety minutes, leaving every single forecast for the match red.
The model also placed too much faith in Holstein Kiel's home resilience. Despite sitting near the bottom of the division, Kiel had not lost on their own ground prior to Saturday, prompting a cautious call for a home victory that Bielefeld erased with a 2-1 win.
What the round changed
Hertha BSC cemented their position at the summit of the 2. Bundesliga by turning back one of their main rivals, while Magdeburg and Nürnberg kept pace with convincing home wins. At the bottom, Dynamo Dresden and VfL Bochum picked up season-defining victories on their own grounds to pull clear of immediate trouble.