FC Cincinnati vs DC United: Seven MLS Home Wins

FC Cincinnati

Major League Soccer

Wed 21 Oct · 23:00

TQL Stadium

Cincinnati, Ohio

DC UnitedUNI

AI Forecasts

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Two sides missing their top scorers meet in Cincinnati, where the home side's attacking firepower has been relentless despite defensive leaks. DC United arrive stuck in a cycle of draws, stubborn on the road but rarely winning, and they'll look to frustrate a Cincy team that scores late and often. The key question is how much Evander's absence blunts the hosts' edge — if they still find the net early, DC's recent inability to keep a clean sheet could make for an open contest.

Match ResultHome Win48%

Cincinnati's seven home wins from eleven matches, against a DC United side that has won only twice on its travels — and none in the last five — makes a home win the most plausible result, despite the absence of Evander.

Win or DrawHome or Draw78%

Cincinnati's record of two defeats in eleven home matches, against an opponent that has drawn more than half its road games, points to the hosts being heavily favoured to take at least a point.

Total Goals3 or more goals62%

Two of the last three head-to-head meetings produced three or more goals, and with both teams carrying over-2.5 records above 60% in recent matches — and Cincinnati's home games averaging well over four goals per contest — a high-scoring tilt is the stronger expectation.

Key facts

FC Cincinnati vs DC United: Seven MLS Home Wins

Updated Wed 14 Oct

FC Cincinnati host DC United in Major League Soccer on Wednesday, 21 October 2026 at TQL Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio, looking to build on a record of seven wins from twelve home league fixtures.

FC Cincinnati boast seven wins in twelve at home

In 12 home matches in this competition, FC Cincinnati have taken seven victories, drawn three, and lost twice, scoring 34 goals while conceding 24. They sit ninth in the Eastern Conference with 36 points from 27 games and a goal difference of -7, having scored 58 and conceded 65 overall. They entered this fixture following a 3-1 away win at Atlanta United FC on 10 October 2026, which halted a four-match winless sequence that included a 1-3 loss at CF Montreal on 26 September, a 2-2 draw at Houston Dynamo on 20 September, a 3-3 home draw against Charlotte on 12 September, and a 0-5 defeat at Philadelphia Union on 9 September. Kévin Denkey leads their attack with 16 goals in all competitions, while S. Gidi is ruled out through injury and K. Fletcher remains doubtful with an injury.

DC United arrive with two away wins from thirteen

DC United sit 12th in the Eastern Conference with 30 points from 27 games, scoring 34 and allowing 46. On the road in MLS, they have recorded two wins, seven draws, and four defeats across 13 matches, scoring 16 goals and conceding 21. Their recent form shows a single win in five games—a 2-1 victory over Columbus Crew on 9 September 2026—followed by a 0-0 home draw against Atlanta United FC on 12 September, a 1-2 home loss to Charlotte on 19 September, a 3-3 draw at Vancouver Whitecaps on 27 September, and a 0-4 defeat away at Inter Miami on 10 October. Top scorer Tai Baribo has registered 14 goals this season across all competitions. For this trip, G. Segal is out with an injury, while defender K. Rowles is doubtful with an injury.

DC United won 2-1 on their last trip to Cincinnati

Recent meetings between these clubs show close contests. On 31 May 2025, DC United took a 2-1 victory against FC Cincinnati. Prior to that, FC Cincinnati earned a 1-0 win on 12 April 2025 and an earlier 3-2 away win on 3 July 2024. The teams drew 0-0 on 10 March 2024, following a 3-0 home victory for DC United on 24 June 2023. Over their last five games with chance data, FC Cincinnati have generated 1.83 expected goals per game while conceding 1.91, whereas DC United have produced 1.74 expected goals and allowed 1.49 per match.

Our model expects an FC Cincinnati win

Our forecasting model expects an FC Cincinnati win. The call reflects the home side's record of seven wins from 12 league matches at TQL Stadium, where they have scored 34 times, alongside Kévin Denkey's 16 goals across all competitions. DC United's return of just two victories from 13 away matches in MLS supports the projection, although DC United's 2-1 victory in the most recent meeting on 31 May 2025 and Cincinnati's defensive average of 1.91 expected goals allowed per game keep the contest competitive.

#	Team	P	GD	Pts
9	FC Cincinnati	28	-8	36
12	DC United	28	-11	33

Key facts

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