Leeds vs Crystal Palace

Leeds face Crystal Palace in Premier League Matchweek 5 on Sunday 20 September 2026 at Elland Road, with the visitors arriving having conceded 11 goals in their opening 4 league fixtures.

Four Palace absences and defensive leaks

Crystal Palace sit 17th in the Premier League table with three points from four games and a goal difference of -5. Defensively, they have allowed 1.64 expected goals per game across their last five fixtures with chance data. In their last league outing on 12 September 2026, Palace suffered a 3-2 home defeat to Ipswich. While they picked up a 4-0 home victory against Lech Poznan in continental action on 17 September 2026 and beat Fulham 3-2 away on 5 September 2026, they also conceded four times in a 4-1 loss to Manchester City on 28 August 2026.

Palace travel north with four confirmed absences. A. Disasi is unavailable through suspension, while goalkeeper D. Henderson, defender C. Riad, and forward J. Mateta are all sidelined by injury. Jørgen Strand Larsen represents their primary threat in attack, leading the squad with four goals across all competitions this season.

Leeds create chances and stay unbeaten at home

Leeds enter the weekend sixth in the table with eight points from four matches, scoring seven and conceding three. At Elland Road in the Premier League, Leeds have recorded one win and one draw from two fixtures, scoring five goals and conceding two. They defeated Newcastle 4-1 at home on 14 September 2026, following a 1-1 home draw against Brentford on 30 August 2026 and a 1-1 away draw at Brighton on 5 September 2026.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin leads Leeds with three goals in all competitions. Leeds have created 1.83 expected goals per game across their last five matches with data while allowing 1.54. The home side have two confirmed injury absences of their own, with J. Rodon and M. Joseph unavailable. In recent meetings between the two teams, Leeds beat Crystal Palace 4-1 at Elland Road on 20 December 2025 before the sides played to a 0-0 draw on 15 March 2026.

Our model expects a Leeds win

Our forecasting model expects a Leeds win. Leeds hold a clear advantage in chance creation, generating 1.83 expected goals per game compared to Palace's 1.31, while Palace have allowed 11 goals in four league games and travel without four regulars in D. Henderson, A. Disasi, C. Riad, and J. Mateta.