Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest: Palace Winless at Home
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Crystal Palace face Nottingham Forest in the Premier League on Sunday 11 October 2026 at Selhurst Park in London, looking to end a run of two straight home defeats in the competition. The hosts sit 15th with four points from five fixtures, having conceded seven goals in their two league matches at Selhurst Park.
Palace missing four starters through injury and suspension
Palace enter the match without four confirmed absentees: Axel Disasi serves a suspension, while Chadi Riad, Dean Henderson, and Jean-Philippe Mateta are sidelined with injuries. Takehiro Tomiyasu remains doubtful with an injury issue. Those defensive and forward losses compound an uneasy start at home in the league, where Palace have lost both matches, conceding seven times and scoring three. Despite that domestic record, striker Jørgen Strand Larsen provides a steady finishing outlet, leading the club with four goals across all competitions this season. Palace have generated 1.35 expected goals per game across their last five matches with chance data, while allowing 1.63.
Nottingham Forest unbeaten on the road
Nottingham Forest enter Matchweek 6 in 13th place on five points, showing far sturdier form away from home than on their own ground. In their two away Premier League matches, Forest have taken four points from a possible six, winning 2-1 away at Aston Villa and drawing 2-2 away at Liverpool. Across their past five fixtures with chance metrics, they have limited opponents to 0.93 expected goals per game while generating 1.39. Forest have their own selection problems in defence and attack, however: Igor Jesus, Nicolò Savona, and Nikola Milenković are all ruled out through injury, with Neco Williams listed as doubtful.
Four draws in the last five meetings
Recent encounters between these sides have ended almost uniformly level. Three consecutive meetings finished 1-1, including a 1-1 draw on 1 February 2026, another 1-1 draw on 24 August 2025, and a 1-1 score on 5 May 2025. Across the last five fixtures between Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest, four ended 1-1 alongside a solitary 1-0 victory for Forest on 21 October 2024.
Our model leans narrowly towards a Nottingham Forest win
Our model leans narrowly towards a Nottingham Forest win, reflecting the confidence attached to the call. Forest remain unbeaten away from home in the league with a win and a draw, supported by a defensive structure that has allowed under one expected goal per game across their recent outings. Palace, conversely, have lost both of their home league fixtures and must reconfigure their lineup without Axel Disasi, Dean Henderson, and Jean-Philippe Mateta.
