Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid: Mbappé on Eight Goals

Atletico MadridATM

Alejandro Grimaldo 53' (pen)
Jonathan David 59'

La Liga

2–1

Full Time

HT 0–0

Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano

Madrid

Real MadridREA

Antonio Rüdiger 89'
Sent off:Dean Huijsen 52'

AI ForecastsGraded

The Madrid derby arrives with Real Madrid in relentless attacking form, averaging over three expected goals per game across the last five, while Atletico Madrid have been a fortress at the Metropolitano, conceding fewer than a goal a game on home turf this season. Recent…

Match ResultAway Win48%

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Match Stats

Top Stats

2.39xG0.32

61%Possession39%

18 (9)Shots (on target)8 (3)

2Big Chances Created0

Attacking Play

3.56xG on Target0.50

1.43Expected Assists (xA)0.33

66Final Third Entries43

24Penalty Area Entries23

Possession & Passing

618 · –Passes (accuracy)393 · –

3Corners1

13Poss. Won — Def 3rd13

19Poss. Won — Mid 3rd13

Duels & Pressing

30 (32%)Duels Won63 (68%)

2 (17%)Aerial Duels Won10 (83%)

43Ball Recoveries35

10.2PPDA (Pressing)16.6

Defending & Discipline

2Saves5

19Fouls6

-0.50Goals Prevented+1.56

Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid: Mbappé on Eight Goals

Updated Sun 20 Sept

Atletico Madrid host Real Madrid in La Liga on Sunday 20 September 2026 at Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano in Madrid, with the visitors creating 3.01 expected goals a match.

Kylian Mbappé leads high-volume Real Madrid attack

Real Madrid enter Matchweek 7 in second place with 15 points and a goal difference of plus-11 from six matches. Kylian Mbappé has scored eight goals across all competitions this season, setting up Carlos Espí for a stoppage-time winner in a 3-2 victory against Elche on 15 September 2026. Over their last five games with chance data, Real Madrid generated 3.01 expected goals per game while conceding 1.09. The away side must manage without three injured players: defenders Eder Militao and F. Mendy, along with forward Rodrygo. In La Liga away matches, Real Madrid hold two wins and one defeat from three fixtures, scoring five goals and conceding four, with their sole league loss coming 0-1 against Real Betis on 4 September 2026.

Atletico Madrid defend unbeaten home record without Sorloth and Barrios

Diego Simeone's Atletico Madrid sit fourth in La Liga with 13 points, having conceded six goals and scored 14 in six matches. At Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano in this competition, the home side have two wins and one draw from three games, scoring eight goals and allowing two. Atletico Madrid enter Sunday following consecutive league victories without conceding, beating Real Sociedad 3-0 on 13 September 2026 and Osasuna 4-0 on 16 September 2026. Jonathan David scored his first goal for the club against Real Sociedad, while Álex Baena leads the squad with four goals in all competitions. The hosts will be without A. Sorloth and P. Barrios due to injury.

Twelve goals across last two head-to-head meetings

The last two meetings between these clubs produced 12 total goals. On 22 March 2026, Real Madrid secured a 3-2 win against Atletico Madrid, reversing the outcome from 27 September 2025 when Atletico Madrid won 5-2. Across their last five matches with chance metrics, Atletico Madrid have averaged 1.75 expected goals created and 0.96 allowed per game.

Our model expects a Real Madrid win

Our model expects a Real Madrid win. Real Madrid's offensive production of 3.01 expected goals per match and Mbappé's eight goals support that call, though Atletico Madrid's home return of eight goals scored and two conceded from three league fixtures presents a stern test.

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