La Liga Matchweek 7 Results: Atletico Edge Madrid Derby

Matchweek 7 in La Liga delivered major shifts at both ends of the table, headlined by Atletico Madrid's 2-1 victory over Real Madrid in the derby and bottom-placed Elche securing an unexpected away win. Our forecasting model had an uneven round on the headline results, landing five of the ten match result calls while performing far better on goal totals and general team expectations.

How our forecasts did

The exact scoreline calls struggled, with only one of the ten projections landing correctly, while half-time and full-time calls also proved difficult with two correct from ten. Match result projections broke even, with five of the ten calls landed across the round, and first team to score landed five of ten. The model performed with far greater precision when reading match dynamics: eight of the ten both teams to score projections were correct, while win or draw delivered eight correct calls from ten. Total goals projections also held up well, with seven of the ten calls landing.

Results

Espanyol 1-3 Elche Elche arrived winless and bottom of the table but produced their best attacking display of the season to take a two-goal victory. The model missed the home win call but correctly anticipated goals, landing both teams to score and more than 2.5 goals in the match.

Osasuna 1-1 Rayo Vallecano Osasuna were held at home as Rayo Vallecano continued their trend of scoring on every road trip. Our call for an Osasuna home victory missed, though low-confidence projections for Osasuna to win or draw and both teams to score were accurate.

Athletic Club 0-0 Alaves Alaves extended their unbeaten run to four matches with a disciplined defensive display, holding Athletic Club scoreless. The model missed on the home win but correctly projected fewer than 2.5 goals in the match and an Athletic Club win or draw.

Celta Vigo 5-0 Racing Santander Celta Vigo broke their winless start to the league campaign in emphatic fashion, putting five past a fragile Racing Santander defence. The model landed a Celta Vigo win, Celta Vigo to win or draw, more than 2.5 goals, Celta Vigo opening the scoring, and Celta Vigo leading at the break before winning the match.

Sevilla 1-3 Barcelona Barcelona extended their winning run to seven league matches, continuing an attack that had already produced twenty-eight goals. Our firm calls for a Barcelona win, Barcelona to win or draw, more than 2.5 goals, and both teams to score all landed cleanly.

Getafe 1-0 Malaga Getafe ground out a low-scoring victory, keeping Malaga without a goal in three of their four away trips. This fixture was our model's sharpest projection of the round: all seven calls landed, including the Getafe win, fewer than 2.5 goals, a clean sheet for at least one side, Getafe scoring first, level at the break before Getafe won it, and the exact 1-0 scoreline.

Atletico Madrid 2-1 Real Madrid Atletico Madrid took the derby spoils, conceding fewer than a goal a game on home turf this season and holding off Real Madrid's attack. The model leaned toward Real Madrid for the match result and missed, but correctly called more than 2.5 goals, both teams to score, and a decisive outcome either way.

Deportivo La Coruna 1-1 Real Betis Real Betis scored first but could not hold their advantage, as Deportivo La Coruna earned a point at home. The projection for an away win was off target, though both teams to score and Real Betis to score first landed.

Villarreal 3-1 Levante Villarreal ended a four-match winless run by breaking through Levante's defensive block. Our model correctly called a Villarreal win, Villarreal to win or draw, more than 2.5 goals, both teams to score, and Villarreal to score the opening goal.

Valencia 2-3 Real Sociedad Valencia's losing streak reached five matches as Real Sociedad's attack took advantage of missing defenders Tarrega and Diakhaby. The model landed a Real Sociedad win, a decisive outcome either way, both teams to score, and Real Sociedad to score the opening goal.

What we got wrong

The clearest failure of the weekend came in the opening match. Elche entered the round winless, sitting bottom with a division-high expected goals against tally, while Espanyol had won their prior match. The model projected an Espanyol win with medium confidence, expecting Elche's leaky back line to fold again. Instead, Elche scored three times on the break and dictated terms throughout the second half.

The model also miscalculated in the Madrid derby. Real Madrid had been averaging more than three expected goals per game over their previous five matches, prompting a projection for an away victory. While the chaotic, high-scoring pattern of recent meetings continued, Atletico Madrid's defensive organisation at home blunted the visitors just enough to edge the contest 2-1.

Matchweek 7 tightened the top half of the standings through Real Madrid's slip, gave Celta Vigo and Elche their first wins of the campaign, and left Valencia in deep trouble near the bottom.

La Liga Matchweek 7 Predictions: Athletic Club vs Alaves

The 2026 La Liga season rolls into Matchweek 7, with ten fixtures scheduled from Friday 18 September through to Sunday 20 September. While the looming Madrid derby dominates the weekend's narrative, there are pivotal encounters at both ends of the table. Our forecasting model has published its early projections for the opening matches, with calls for the later weekend fixtures still pending as kickoff approaches.

Athletic Club look to bounce back against Alaves

Athletic Club return to San Mamés to face Alaves on Saturday afternoon, needing to arrest a wobble that has seen them suffer back-to-back league defeats. Those losses have left them mid-table and without a home win since the opening weekend. Alaves arrive in contrasting form; they are unbeaten in three matches and look significantly sharper going forward, boosted by Lucas Boyé, who is already on four goals for the campaign.

Despite the visitors' momentum, our forecasting model leans towards an Athletic Club win, though it makes the call with low confidence. The data points to a closely fought contest: the model projects fewer than 2.5 goals in the match overall. A cautious projection also suggests the hosts will score the opening goal and lead at the break, but given Alaves' recent attacking output, Athletic will have to work hard for the points.

Match-by-match

Friday

Espanyol vs Elche Espanyol arrive at the RCDE Stadium aiming to build on a narrow win in their last outing, having previously endured three defeats in four. They face an Elche side rooted to the bottom of the table, still winless and burdened by a La Liga-high expected-goals against figure. The model is firm in its projection of an Espanyol win, expecting the hosts to score the opening goal in a match that features more than 2.5 goals.

Saturday

Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano Osasuna have steadied a rocky start with two straight wins, but they have only managed a single goal across three outings at El Sadar. Rayo Vallecano's away record is dire, with three defeats and eleven goals conceded, but they possess an attacking threat through the in-form Sergio Camello and have scored in every road trip. The model makes a cautious call for an Osasuna win, while projecting that Rayo Vallecano will score the opening goal. A highly speculative exact scoreline forecast points to a 2-1 home victory.