Alaves vs Atletico Madrid

Alaves host Atletico Madrid in La Liga on Saturday, 10 October 2026 at Estadio de Mendizorroza in Vitoria-Gasteiz, where the visiting side arrive on a three-match winning run in domestic competition.

Atletico Madrid score nine across three straight league victories

Atletico Madrid sit second in La Liga with 16 points from seven matches, scoring 16 times and conceding seven. In domestic play, they have collected three consecutive victories: a 3-0 win away at Real Sociedad on 13 September, a 4-0 home victory against Osasuna on 16 September, and a 2-1 derby win over Real Madrid on 20 September.

That domestic run followed a brief dip where they suffered a 3-0 league loss away to Athletic Club on 5 September and a 2-1 defeat at Liverpool in the UEFA Champions League on 9 September. Top scorer Álex Baena has four goals in all competitions, leading an attack that generates an average of 2.04 expected goals per game over their last five outings while allowing just 0.83. Atletico Madrid have carried that edge on their travels as well, winning two of three away fixtures in La Liga.

Alaves enter on a three-game winless sequence

Alaves enter Matchweek 8 in sixth place with 11 points and a positive goal difference of five, having scored 11 goals and conceded six. After opening September with a 5-2 home win over Osasuna, results have slowed down. Alaves lost 2-1 away to Racing Santander on 12 September, fell 1-0 at home to Valencia on 15 September, and drew 0-0 away at Athletic Club on 19 September.

Top scorer Lucas Boyé has four goals across all competitions, but the team's chance creation has averaged 1.09 expected goals per game over their last five matches while surrendering 1.34. The home side must also manage squad depth without Facundo Garcés, Mikel Rodríguez, and Ville Koski, who are all ruled out through injury. Despite the recent stumble, Alaves hold a solid home record in the league this season, winning three of their four matches at Estadio de Mendizorroza.

Recent head-to-head meetings lean to Madrid

Recent meetings between these clubs show an advantage for the capital club. Atletico Madrid won the most recent encounter 1-0 on 18 January 2026, following consecutive draws in 2025: 1-1 on 30 August and 0-0 on 3 May. Atletico also claimed a 2-1 home victory on 23 November 2024. Alaves last defeated Atletico Madrid on 21 April 2024, when they earned a 2-0 win on their home pitch.

Our model expects an Atletico Madrid win

Our model expects an Atletico Madrid win, assigning medium confidence to the away side. That forecast aligns with Atletico Madrid's underlying output of 2.04 expected goals created per game compared to 1.09 for Alaves, combined with the visitors' current three-game domestic winning run and three confirmed injuries in the home squad.