Energie Cottbus vs FC St. Pauli: 25 Goals in Five Matches
Updated
Energie Cottbus host FC St. Pauli in the 2. Bundesliga on Sunday, 20 September 2026, at LEAG Energie Stadion in Cottbus, following five league rounds that have yielded a combined 25 goals in Cottbus fixtures.
Cottbus average five goals per game with Ciğerci leading the line
Energie Cottbus sit 7th in the table with seven points and a +1 goal difference after scoring 13 goals and conceding 12 across their opening five fixtures. Their recent matches include a 3-0 victory away at Karlsruher SC on 13 September, a 4-4 draw away at VfL Wolfsburg on 5 September, and a 4-3 home defeat to SpVgg Greuther Fürth on 29 August. Across their two league fixtures at LEAG Energie Stadion, Cottbus have won one and lost one, scoring six goals and conceding five.
Tolcay Ciğerci leads the home side's scoring charts with four goals in all competitions this season. However, Cottbus give up chances regularly at the other end. Over their last five matches with chance quality data, they generated 1.01 expected goals per game while allowing 1.66.
FC St. Pauli remain unbeaten away after successive 2-2 draws
FC St. Pauli occupy 10th place in the 2. Bundesliga with six points from five matches, scoring seven goals and conceding seven. They secured their first victory of the league campaign on 12 September by defeating VfL Wolfsburg 1-0 at home, following a 2-2 draw away at Arminia Bielefeld on 4 September and a 2-2 draw away at Holstein Kiel on 14 August. Taichi Hara is their top scorer this season with two goals in all competitions.
Away from home in the division, St. Pauli have drawn both fixtures, scoring four goals and conceding four. Their broader underlying numbers indicate solid structure: over their last five matches with available chance metrics, St. Pauli created 1.14 expected goals per game while conceding only 0.87.
Our model leans narrowly towards a FC St. Pauli win
Our forecasting model leans narrowly towards a FC St. Pauli win. While Energie Cottbus have scored 10 goals across their last three matches, their defensive record of allowing 1.66 expected goals per game contrasts with St. Pauli's tighter defensive baseline of 0.87 expected goals allowed.
