FC St. Pauli vs Karlsruher SC: Visitors Winless in Five
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FC St. Pauli host Karlsruher SC in the 2. Bundesliga on Sunday, 11 October 2026 at Millerntor-Stadion in Hamburg, with the visitors arriving on a five-match winless run.
Karlsruher SC concede 12 goals in six league games
Karlsruher SC sit 16th in the 2. Bundesliga table with five points from six games and a minus-six goal difference. They have conceded 12 times in those six matches. Over their last five fixtures with chance quality data, Karlsruher SC have allowed 1.79 expected goals per game while generating 1.27. They suffered home defeats of 5-2 against VfL Wolfsburg on 29 August, 3-0 against Energie Cottbus on 13 September, and 1-0 against 1. FC Nürnberg on 19 September. Away from home, however, they have drawn both 2. Bundesliga games, finishing 0-0 at 1. FC Kaiserslautern on 15 August and 2-2 at Hannover 96 on 4 September. Moritz Broschinski leads their attack with two goals in all competitions this season.
FC St. Pauli reshuffle without three players
FC St. Pauli sit ninth with seven points and an even goal difference from six matches, scoring eight and conceding eight. Their last league fixture ended in a 1-1 draw away at Energie Cottbus on 20 September 2026, following a 1-0 home victory against VfL Wolfsburg on 12 September. Across three home fixtures in the competition, they have registered one win, one draw, and one defeat, scoring three goals and conceding three. Top scorer Taichi Hara has netted two goals in all competitions. The home side must manage three absences: Gísli Thórdarson and Mathias Pereira Lage are sidelined by injury, while Tomoya Andō misses out through suspension.
Our model expects a FC St. Pauli win
Our forecasting model expects a FC St. Pauli win. The home side generate 1.33 expected goals a game while conceding 1.14 over their last five outings with data, presenting a firmer defensive structure than Karlsruher SC. While Karlsruher SC have drawn both away league fixtures, their concession of 12 goals across six matches and an average of 1.79 expected goals allowed per match support the home advantage at Millerntor-Stadion.
