Celta Vigo vs Juventus: Both Squads Hit by Injuries
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Celta Vigo face Juventus in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday, 15 October 2026 at Balaidos in Vigo, with both squads carrying significant injury lists. Celta enter the match seeking their first European points of the campaign, while Juventus sit atop the 36-team standings.
Pablo Durán among five Celta Vigo absentees
Celta Vigo sit 26th in the league stage after opening their European campaign with a 1-0 defeat away at Omonia Nicosia on 16 September 2026. Domestic form has delivered mixed returns, including a 5-0 win over Racing Santander on 19 September 2026 and a 0-0 draw away at Elche on 11 October 2026.
The hosts must adjust without their leading scorer. Pablo Durán, who has scored two goals in all competitions this season, is ruled out with an injury. Celta are also missing forward Borja Iglesias, defender Carl Starfelt, midfielder Miguel Román, and Jones El-Abdellaoui.
Juventus top the table despite seven missing players
Juventus opened matchweek 1 with a 5-0 home win over NEC Nijmegen on 17 September 2026, a result that placed them first in the UEFA Europa League table on goal difference. In Serie A, they drew 1-1 away at Cagliari on 11 October 2026 and defeated Atalanta 2-0 on 20 September 2026.
Luciano Spalletti travels without seven squad members. Manuel Locatelli, Kenan Yıldız, Khéphren Thuram-Ulien, Jérémie Boga, Jeff Ekhator, and goalkeeper Kamil Grabara are all out through injury, while Arman Durmiši serves a suspension. Forward Randal Kolo Muani leads the Italian club with two goals across all competitions this season.
Both sides limit opponents to 0.57 expected goals
Both clubs have shown defensive structure in recent weeks. Over their last five matches with chance data, Celta Vigo and Juventus have each allowed an average of exactly 0.57 expected goals per game.
The divergence comes in attacking output. Juventus have generated 1.99 expected goals per game across their last five recorded fixtures, compared to 1.27 created by Celta Vigo.
Our model leans narrowly towards a Juventus win
Our model leans narrowly towards a Juventus win. The projection reflects the Italian side's stronger attacking numbers, having produced 1.99 expected goals per game and scored five times in their European opener. However, seven Juventus absences and Celta Vigo's steady defensive baseline of 0.57 expected goals conceded keep the margin tight.