Cagliari vs Juventus: Hosts Sit Two Points Clear
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Cagliari host Juventus in Serie A on Sunday, 11 October 2026 at Unipol Domus in Cagliari, with the home side sitting fourth in the table and two points ahead of the visitors.
Cagliari enter with three straight wins despite chance data
Cagliari have compiled 12 points from their opening five league fixtures, recording five goals scored and two conceded. Their recent run includes three consecutive victories: a 1-0 win away at Udinese on 19 September, a 2-1 win away at Atalanta on 12 September, and a 1-0 home victory against Lecce on 7 September. Daniel Maldini leads the attack with three goals in all competitions this season.
That points tally contrasts with Cagliari's underlying numbers. Over their last five matches with chance data, Cagliari created 1.00 expected goals per game while allowing 1.65. They also manage squad limits for this fixture, with Alessandro Deiola, Mattia Felici, and Riyad Idrissi ruled out through injury, while Alen Sherri, Kevin Carlos, and Yael Trepy are listed as doubtful.
Juventus carry six confirmed absences into Sardinia
Juventus sit seventh with 10 points from five matches, holding a goal difference of plus-four with eight scored and four allowed. They responded to a 3-2 defeat at Sassuolo on 13 September by defeating NEC Nijmegen 5-0 on 17 September and Atalanta 2-0 on 20 September. Nicolás González leads their scoring chart with two goals across all competitions.
The visitors travel without six injured players: Jeff Ekhator, Jérémie Boga, Kamil Grabara, Kenan Yıldız, Khéphren Thuram-Ulien, and Manuel Locatelli are all out, while Augusto Owusu is doubtful. Despite those absences, Juventus have generated 1.94 expected goals per game across their last five matches with data, allowing only 0.51. In the previous encounter between these sides on 17 January 2026, Cagliari defeated Juventus 1-0.
Our model firmly expects a Juventus win
Our model firmly expects a Juventus win on Sunday. The call reflects the wide gap in chance creation and concession between the two teams. Juventus restrict opponents to 0.51 expected goals per game while generating nearly two, whereas Cagliari allow 1.65 expected goals on average despite their three recent victories and their 1-0 head-to-head win in January.
