1899 Hoffenheim vs Beşiktaş

1899 Hoffenheim face Beşiktaş in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday, 15 October 2026 at SNP Arena in Sinsheim, entering matchday 2 on a three-match losing run across all competitions.

Hoffenheim struggle after three straight defeats

The German side sit 30th in the 36-team Europa League standings with zero points and a minus-two goal difference following their 0-2 loss away at OFI on 17 September 2026. Domestic fixtures have provided no respite, with a 1-3 defeat at SC Paderborn 07 on 20 September 2026 and a 2-3 home loss against Hamburger SV on 10 October 2026 extending their slide. Across their last five matches in all competitions, 1899 Hoffenheim have lost four, having also suffered a 2-3 home defeat against Borussia Dortmund on 5 September 2026 before their lone recent win, 2-1 against VfB Stuttgart on 12 September 2026. Their attacking return has been thin, with top scorer A. Hložek leading the squad on two goals this season. Over their last five games with chance data, Hoffenheim created 1.60 expected goals per game while conceding 1.58.

Beşiktaş arrive fourth in the table with Vlahović uncertain

Beşiktaş began their European campaign with a 4-1 home victory over Marseille on 17 September 2026, placing them fourth in the league phase with three points and a plus-three goal difference. In all competitions, the Turkish side have won four of their last five matches: a 2-1 away victory at Fenerbahçe on 5 September 2026, a 3-0 home win over Erzurumspor FK on 11 September 2026, and a 2-1 home result against Kocaelispor on 11 October 2026, interrupted only by a 2-3 defeat at Amed on 20 September 2026. Their underlying numbers show firm control, averaging 2.13 expected goals created and 0.98 allowed per match across their last five recorded fixtures. However, leading scorer Dušan Vlahović, who has scored six goals in all competitions this season, is doubtful due to an injury, while Václav Cerny is ruled out. The home side also contend with fitness issues, missing Albian Hajdari and Patrick Wimmer through injury.

Our model expects a 1899 Hoffenheim win

Our model expects a 1899 Hoffenheim win, offering the verdict with medium confidence. The call supports Hoffenheim despite their run of eight goals conceded across three consecutive losses and an opening 0-2 European defeat to OFI. The projection relies on home advantage at SNP Arena and the uncertainty surrounding Dušan Vlahović, whose six goals lead all players in this fixture, even as Beşiktaş bring four wins from five matches and an expected goals balance of 2.13 created to 0.98 conceded.