1899 Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV: Nine Hamburg Absentees
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1899 Hoffenheim play Hamburger SV in the Bundesliga on Saturday, 10 October 2026, at PreZero Arena in Sinsheim, with the visiting side carrying a heavily depleted squad.
Nine Hamburger SV players out or doubtful
Hamburger SV travel to Sinsheim with severe selection constraints. Albert Grønbæk, Alexander Røssing, Miro Muheim, Patson Daka, and Zakaria El Ouahdi are all ruled out with injury, while Mario Vušković serves a suspension. To compound their selection issues, Immanuël Pherai, Kofi Amoako, and Terem Moffi are listed as doubtful with injuries.
1899 Hoffenheim deal with far fewer absences, missing only Bernardo due to injury. The home side can call upon A. Hložek, who leads their scoring charts this season with two goals across all competitions.
Hamburger SV have conceded seven without scoring away
Hamburger SV occupy 16th place in the Bundesliga standings with three points from four games and a goal difference of -11. In their two away fixtures in the competition, they have lost both without scoring, conceding seven times across a 0-2 loss at Borussia Dortmund on 29 August and a 0-5 defeat at RB Leipzig on 13 September. Their only league points came in their most recent match, a 2-1 home victory against 1. FC Köln on 19 September.
1899 Hoffenheim sit 14th in the table, also on three points from four games. They enter this fixture following consecutive away defeats: 0-2 against OFI in the UEFA Europa League on 17 September and 1-3 against SC Paderborn 07 in the Bundesliga on 20 September. At PreZero Arena in the league, Hoffenheim have recorded one win and one defeat, beating VfB Stuttgart 2-1 on 12 September after a 2-3 loss to Borussia Dortmund on 5 September. Hoffenheim also won both recent meetings between these sides, earning a 4-1 home victory on 13 December 2025 and a 2-1 away win on 25 April 2026.
Our model firmly expects a 1899 Hoffenheim win
Our model firmly expects a 1899 Hoffenheim win. That projection is supported by Hamburger SV's extensive absentee list and a stark divide in underlying metrics. 1899 Hoffenheim have created an average of 1.74 expected goals per game while allowing 1.66 over their last four matches with available chance data. In contrast, Hamburger SV have averaged 0.90 expected goals created and conceded 2.12 over the same stretch. While Hoffenheim have conceded ten goals in four league fixtures, Hamburger SV have yet to score away from home this season.
