FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen

FSV Mainz 05 meet Bayer Leverkusen in the Bundesliga on Saturday, 10 October 2026 at MEWA ARENA in Mainz, with the home side missing five players through injury.

Five injuries disrupt Mainz at MEWA ARENA

Mainz enter the weekend sixth in the Bundesliga table with seven points from four games, but their depth faces an immediate strain. Dominik Kohr, Paul Nebel, Robin Zentner, Silas Katompa Mvumpa, and Silvan Widmer are all ruled out with injuries.

That list leaves Mainz reshuffling across multiple departments on their own pitch, where results have lagged behind their away performances. While Mainz earned away wins of 5-0 at Hamburger SV on 6 September and 4-3 at Borussia Mönchengladbach on 19 September, their home record in the Bundesliga stands at zero wins, one draw, and one defeat, scoring once and conceding three. A 0-0 draw with SC Paderborn 07 on 29 August was followed by a 3-1 home defeat against Eintracht Frankfurt on 12 September.

Tietz and Schick lead matched attacks

The two clubs are separated by a single goal in the standings. Bayer Leverkusen sit fifth with seven points and a plus-five goal difference, having scored 10 goals and conceded five. Mainz match that total of 10 goals scored while conceding six.

Both attacks rely on in-form finishers who have registered four goals in all competitions this season: P. Tietz for Mainz and Patrik Schick for Leverkusen. Schick helped Leverkusen secure a 2-0 victory over RB Leipzig in their last league outing on 20 September, four days after a 2-0 win against Celje in the UEFA Europa League. Leverkusen have their own injury concerns, with Christian Kofane, Guéla Doué, Kennet Eichhorn, and Montrell Culbreath all unavailable.

Leverkusen unbeaten in five meetings

Leverkusen hold the edge in recent encounters between the two clubs. Across their last five meetings dating back to February 2024, Leverkusen have recorded three victories and two draws. Mainz pushed Leverkusen close in the previous campaign, holding them to a 1-1 draw on 28 February 2026 after falling 4-3 on 18 October 2025 at MEWA ARENA.

Leverkusen have yet to translate that head-to-head control into a Bundesliga away win this season. In two away fixtures, they have drawn 2-2 at FC Augsburg on 12 September and lost 3-2 at SV Elversberg on 29 August, conceding five times on their travels.

Our model leans towards a Bayer Leverkusen win

Our forecasting model leans narrowly towards a Bayer Leverkusen win. The call reflects Leverkusen's superiority in underlying defensive numbers, where they have allowed 0.87 expected goals per game compared to 1.59 allowed by Mainz. Leverkusen also benefit from Mainz's five confirmed absences, though Leverkusen's record of five goals conceded across their two winless away trips keeps the margin tight.