NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia: Both Seek First Win
Published
NEC Nijmegen host Levski Sofia in UEFA Europa League Matchweek 2 on Thursday 15 October 2026 at Goffertstadion in Nijmegen, with both sides seeking their first points of the league phase. The Dutch side sit 36th in the table after a 5-0 loss to Juventus on 17 September 2026, while Levski Sofia are 27th following a 1-0 defeat to Red Bull Salzburg.
NEC Nijmegen manage five games without a victory
The home side enter this fixture on a five-match winless run across all competitions. Before drawing 1-1 away at Ajax on 10 October 2026 and 1-1 at home against Go Ahead Eagles on 20 September 2026, NEC Nijmegen were beaten 5-0 by Juventus in Europe and 3-0 away at Cambuur on 12 September 2026. Across their last five matches with chance data, they have generated 1.07 expected goals per match while conceding an average of 2.82. Top scorer Tjaronn Chery, who leads the club with four goals this season in all competitions, will feature without Bram Nuytinck and Emre Mor, who both miss out through injury.
Levski Sofia go three matches without scoring
Levski Sofia arrive in Nijmegen having failed to find the net in three consecutive European outings. Their Matchday 1 campaign opened with a 1-0 home defeat against Red Bull Salzburg on 17 September 2026, which followed a 4-0 loss away at AEK Athens FC on 26 August 2026 and a 0-0 home draw against the same Greek side on 18 August 2026. Across their last four matches with chance data, the Bulgarian side have generated 0.86 expected goals per match and allowed 1.65. They are missing injured pair Akram Bouras and Radoslav Kirilov, leaving top scorer Reinaldo, who has three goals this season, to lead the attack.
Our model expects a NEC Nijmegen win
Our model expects a NEC Nijmegen win, giving the call medium confidence. Although NEC Nijmegen sit bottom of the 36-team table with a minus-five goal difference, Levski Sofia have generated under one expected goal per game across their recent tracked fixtures and have not scored since beating Kairat Almaty 1-0 on 11 August 2026. While NEC Nijmegen allow 2.82 expected goals per game, Levski Sofia's own offensive drought and the absence of Radoslav Kirilov tilt the assessment towards the Dutch hosts at Goffertstadion.