Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen: Twelve Players Sidelined
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Ajax host NEC Nijmegen in Eredivisie Matchweek 8 on Saturday, 10 October 2026 at Johan Cruijff Arena in Amsterdam. Both squads enter the fixture missing six players through injury.
Six injuries apiece for Ajax and NEC Nijmegen
Both teams deal with depleted rosters. Ajax are without Aaron Bouwman, Caio Henrique, Daley Blind, Kasper Dolberg, Simon Adingra, and Steven Berghuis. Top scorer Davy Klaassen, who has scored seven goals in all competitions this season, remains available to lead the attack.
NEC Nijmegen arrive with their own list of six absentees: Ahmetcan Kaplan, Bram Nuytinck, Clement Bischoff, Deveron Fonville, Emre Mor, and Gonzalo Crettaz are all sidelined with injuries. Midfielder Tjaronn Chery leads the visiting attack with three goals in all competitions this season.
Ajax create 2.90 expected goals to NEC Nijmegen's 1.00
Fifth-place Ajax have scored 21 goals in seven league games, holding a plus-12 goal difference. Over their last five fixtures with chance data, the Amsterdam club generated 2.90 expected goals per game while allowing 1.40. Their home record in the competition stands at one win, two draws, and one loss from four matches, including a 2-2 draw with Excelsior on 19 September 2026 and a 5-1 win over Willem II on 15 September 2026.
NEC Nijmegen sit 11th in the table with eight points from seven games. Across their past five matches, they produced 1.00 expected goal per game and conceded 2.68. The visitors have drawn two and lost three of their last five matches across all competitions, including a 1-1 draw against Go Ahead Eagles on 20 September 2026 and a 5-0 defeat away at Juventus on 17 September 2026.
Three draws in the last four meetings between Ajax and NEC Nijmegen
The recent series between these clubs shows tight contests. The teams drew 1-1 on 21 February 2026 and 2-2 on 20 December 2025. NEC Nijmegen won 3-0 in Amsterdam on 11 May 2025, while Ajax secured a 2-1 away victory on 1 December 2024. Three of the last four encounters between the sides ended level.
Our model firmly expects an Ajax win
Our model firmly expects an Ajax win. That forecast is backed by Ajax's attacking return of 21 goals in seven league matches and an average of 2.90 expected goals created per game, contrasted with NEC Nijmegen's defensive record of 2.68 expected goals allowed per match during a five-game winless sequence.
