SC Freiburg vs FK Jablonec: Suzuki Leads Freiburg
Published
SC Freiburg face FK Jablonec in the UEFA Europa Conference League on Thursday, 15 October 2026 at Signal Iduna Park in Dortmund, with the German side unbeaten across their last five fixtures.
Freiburg average 1.85 expected goals per game
Freiburg enter this European opener on a run of four wins and one draw. They defeated FC Schalke 04 2-1 on 11 October 2026, followed by a 2-2 draw at Eintracht Frankfurt on 19 September 2026. Prior to that draw, Freiburg registered three consecutive league victories: a 5-0 win over Borussia Mönchengladbach on 12 September 2026, a 1-0 result at SC Paderborn 07 on 5 September 2026, and a 4-1 victory against Werder Bremen on 30 August 2026.
Underlying numbers back up their production. Over their last five matches with chance data recorded, Freiburg created 1.85 expected goals per game while allowing only 0.63 at the other end. Yuito Suzuki has provided the cutting edge in front of goal, scoring four times across all competitions this season. The German side must manage two confirmed injury absences for this fixture, with Florent Muslija and Rihito Yamamoto both ruled out.
Jablonec qualify despite three squad injuries
FK Jablonec reached the league phase through qualifying, winning four of their last five European fixtures. Their most recent outing brought a 1-0 home victory against Rangers on 27 August 2026, overturning a 1-0 away defeat in Glasgow on 20 August 2026. Before meeting Rangers, Jablonec earned a 2-1 away victory over Rīgas FS on 13 August 2026, having already won the home leg 2-0 on 6 August 2026. That run began with a 2-0 home win over NK Varazdin on 30 July 2026.
The Czech club arrives in Dortmund with personnel concerns across the pitch. Kevin-Prince Milla and Klemen Mihelak are both ruled out through injury, while Jan Suchan remains doubtful because of a fitness issue.
Our model firmly expects a SC Freiburg win
Our model firmly expects a SC Freiburg win in Dortmund. Freiburg's balance across their previous five matches, where they conceded an average of just 0.63 expected goals per game, contrasts with Jablonec's selection headaches. Although Jablonec demonstrated defensive resolve to edge Rangers 1-0 in August, Freiburg's attack—led by Suzuki's four goals and an average of 1.85 expected goals created—provides the stronger baseline.