SC Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04: Freiburg Scored 12 Goals
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SC Freiburg face FC Schalke 04 in the Bundesliga on Sunday, 11 October 2026 at Signal Iduna Park in Dortmund. The home team enter third in the table with 10 points from four matches, having scored 12 goals and conceded three.
Freiburg average 2.47 expected goals per game
Over their last five matches with chance data, SC Freiburg have generated 2.47 expected goals per game while allowing 0.61. In the Bundesliga, they have won both of their home fixtures, scoring nine goals and conceding one. Their early-season run includes a 5-0 home victory over Borussia Mönchengladbach on 12 September 2026, a 4-1 home win against Werder Bremen on 30 August 2026, and a 4-1 victory against Motherwell in the UEFA Europa Conference League. Yuito Suzuki leads the squad with four goals across all competitions this season.
Freiburg will play without three injured players: Florent Muslija, Patrick Osterhage, and Rihito Yamamoto are all ruled out. Their most recent league fixture ended in a 2-2 draw away at Eintracht Frankfurt on 19 September 2026.
Schalke face four injury absences
FC Schalke 04 enter Matchweek 5 in 12th place with five points from four games, scoring three goals and conceding four. Across their four matches with chance tracking, they have created 1.33 expected goals per game and conceded 2.10.
Four players are unavailable for selection due to injury: Adrian Gantenbein, Ayman Gülasi, Bryan Lasme, and Dejan Ljubičić are all out. In league away matches, Schalke have recorded one win and one loss from two games, having beaten Union Berlin 3-1 on 11 September 2026 following a 3-0 defeat against FC Augsburg on 30 August 2026. Their previous league match was a 0-0 home draw against SV Elversberg on 20 September 2026.
Our model expects a SC Freiburg win
Our forecasting model expects a SC Freiburg win with medium confidence. This call is backed by Freiburg's return of 10 points from four league games and a domestic home record of two wins from two matches with a +8 goal differential. Schalke's average of 2.10 expected goals allowed per match and four confirmed player absences provide further backing for the forecast.
