Premier League Matchweek 4 Results: Man City Win Derby

The Premier League delivered plenty of unexpected twists in Matchweek 4, headlined by Brighton's five-goal thrashing of Coventry City and Manchester City's narrow derby victory over Manchester United. It was a testing weekend for our forecasting model, which correctly called half of the match results but struggled to anticipate several major upsets among the traditional contenders.

How our forecasts did

Our exact scoreline forecasts suffered a total washout this weekend, with zero of the ten graded calls proving correct. The match result, both teams to score, and first team to score categories all finished with five correct calls from ten graded matches. Total goals fared better, landing seven of the ten forecasts. The half-time and full-time topic produced three correct calls from ten, while the win or draw category was our strongest performer, returning eight correct predictions from ten.

Saturday's Results

Aston Villa 1-2 Nottingham Forest Our model projected a medium-confidence Aston Villa win, noting their underlying creative metrics, but Nottingham Forest upended that expectation to take the points and hand the hosts another disappointing result.

Bournemouth 2-2 Brentford We made a cautious call for a draw, leaning on Bournemouth's unbeaten home run across all competitions, and that forecast was perfectly validated as the two sides shared the points in a four-goal encounter.

Chelsea 2-2 Hull City A firm forecast for a Chelsea victory fell flat as newly promoted Hull City secured an unexpected point at Stamford Bridge.

Crystal Palace 2-3 Ipswich Our model projected a Crystal Palace win, but Ipswich outgunned their hosts to take a valuable away victory on a difficult afternoon for our match result calls.

Liverpool 0-0 Fulham A firm projection for a Liverpool win missed the mark completely as Fulham held out for a resilient goalless draw at Anfield despite arriving with three consecutive league defeats.

Tottenham 0-0 Everton We made a cautious call for a Tottenham win, but Spurs failed to find the net once again, languishing with a scoreless draw against an unbeaten Everton side.

Sunderland 0-2 Arsenal Our model correctly called an Arsenal victory, noting their formidable defensive record, and accurately projected that fewer than 2.5 goals would be scored as they secured three points on Wearside.

Sunday's Results

Coventry 0-5 Brighton We forecast a Brighton win, but their absolute dominance over a Coventry side still searching for their first top-flight goal exceeded even our expectations.

Manchester United 0-1 Manchester City Our model projected a Manchester City win in the first Manchester derby of the season, and the visitors delivered with a narrow victory to maintain their imperious form at the summit.

Monday's Result

Leeds 4-1 Newcastle We made a cautious call for a Leeds win, supported by their solid home form at Elland Road, and they emphatically delivered by dismantling Newcastle.

What we got wrong

Our model was badly caught out by the heavyweights stumbling at home on Saturday. The firmest miscalculation came at Stamford Bridge, where a high-confidence call for a Chelsea win fell flat. The model leaned heavily on Chelsea's perfect historical record in this fixture—nine wins from nine meetings, including a 4-0 cup rout just last February—but completely underestimated Hull City's ability to compete.

Equally frustrating was Liverpool's goalless draw with Fulham. Our model registered a high-confidence forecast for a home win, noting that Fulham arrived at Anfield rooted to the foot of the table with three defeats from three and an anaemic attacking record on the road. Even with Cody Gakpo sidelined, Jürgen Klopp's side were heavily favoured to break their streak of draws, but the model failed to account for Fulham's stubbornness. Finally, our medium-confidence call for Aston Villa to beat Nottingham Forest was undone; despite the underlying data pointing to Villa averaging over three big chances a game, it was Forest who found their scoring touch to claim a 2-1 win.

Matchweek 4 reinforced Manchester City and Arsenal's formidable starts to the campaign, while exposing serious flaws in several of the traditional contenders. With newly promoted sides proving they can take points off the established elite, the coming weeks will test whether these early surprises are temporary blips or the beginning of longer-term trends.

Premier League Matchweek 4 Predictions: Spurs Seek Revival

Premier League Matchweek 4 runs from September 12 to September 14, delivering ten fixtures across the weekend. The opening weeks of the 2026 campaign have left several established sides scrambling for form, with Tottenham Hotspur and Aston Villa both searching for their first goals and Liverpool trying to snap a streak of draws. Our forecasting model has processed the data for the early matches, laying out its expectations for the round.

Tottenham look to break their duck against Everton

Tottenham's season could hardly have started in a worse fashion. After three games, they have zero goals and just a solitary point, leaving them languishing in the bottom three. Their attacking malaise is compounded by injuries to creative outlets like Xavi Simons, alongside lingering doubts over James Maddison. They host an Everton side that, by contrast, remain unbeaten and have found the net in every league game so far.

Despite the contrasting form, our model leans towards a narrow Tottenham win, though it attaches a cautious, low confidence to the match result. Everton's away record is characterised by a sequence of draws rather than victories, which may offer the hosts a route back into form. The model projects Everton to score the opening goal with moderate confidence, but anticipates Spurs will ultimately claim the points.

Saturday

Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest Aston Villa are yet to register a league goal this season after three goalless outings, but their underlying creation—averaging over three big chances a game—hints that a breakthrough is imminent. They welcome a Nottingham Forest side who have been stodgy rather than spectacular, drawing twice and failing to score in two of their three matches. Our model projects an Aston Villa win with moderate confidence, anticipating a tight game with fewer than 2.5 total goals.

Bournemouth vs Brentford Bournemouth have established themselves as draw specialists on home soil, going unbeaten in their last four here across all competitions. That resilience will be tested by a Brentford side yet to win on the road this season. The hosts have a grim head-to-head record, having never beaten the Bees in ten attempts, although a goalless draw in March suggests the gap is closing.