Brazil's Serie A Matchweek 26 saw bottom-of-the-table Chapecoense-sc secure a shock 2-1 victory over Corinthians, in a challenging round where our forecasting model correctly called six of the ten match results.
How our forecasts did
Half-time and full-time proved to be the most difficult category in Matchweek 26, managing just one correct call from ten graded. Both teams to score also struggled, returning three correct calls from ten, while total goals saw four of the ten calls land. Performance improved in the core markets: six of the ten match result calls were correct, and the exact scoreline model secured two out of ten. The most successful topics were win or draw and first team to score, which both delivered seven correct calls out of ten graded.
Results
RB Bragantino 2-3 Bahia Our cautious forecast for a Bahia win proved correct, as they extended their unbeaten run to seven matches. The expectation of fewer than 2.5 goals was incorrect in a five-goal contest, though the model rightly leaned away from a draw in the win or draw category.
Sao Paulo 2-0 Atletico-MG Sao Paulo maintained their strong home form, delivering on our close projection for a home victory. The calls for fewer than 2.5 goals and for the hosts to score first both landed perfectly, although the expectation that both teams would score was wide of the mark.
Fluminense 1-0 Vasco DA Gama Fluminense's formidable home record held up against a Vasco da Gama side still seeking their first road victory. Our firm projection for Fluminense to score the opening goal was correct, as was the exact scoreline forecast of Fluminense 1-0 Vasco DA Gama.
Coritiba 1-2 Mirassol A depleted Coritiba side fell to Mirassol, entirely overturning our cautious call for a home victory. We did, however, correctly forecast both teams to score and Coritiba to strike first before the visitors rallied.
Cruzeiro 3-1 Atletico Paranaense Cruzeiro rode their winning streak to another home success against an Atletico Paranaense side missing key players. The model correctly projected a Cruzeiro win, more than 2.5 goals, both teams to score, and the hosts to find the net first.
Internacional 2-3 Santos An unpredictable clash saw Santos emerge victorious, defeating our tentative projection of an Internacional win. The call for fewer than 2.5 goals also missed the mark in a high-scoring affair, though the model accurately foresaw Santos being ahead at the break and winning it.
Remo 0-1 Flamengo Flamengo's pursuit of the title continued with a narrow away victory against relegation-threatened Remo. The firm calls for a Flamengo win, a Flamengo win or draw, and Flamengo to score first all proved correct.
Botafogo 0-0 Palmeiras League leaders Palmeiras encountered a stubborn Botafogo side in a goalless draw. Our forecast for a Palmeiras win fell short, though the projection for fewer than 2.5 goals landed, as did the secondary call for Palmeiras to win or draw.
Corinthians 1-2 Chapecoense-sc Bottom-of-the-table Chapecoense-sc claimed a shock away victory against a heavily depleted Corinthians squad. While we correctly called Corinthians to score first, our primary projection for a home win missed entirely.
Vitoria 1-0 Gremio Vitoria's home fortress held strong against a Gremio side still winless on the road. The model excelled here, correctly calling the Vitoria win, fewer than 2.5 goals, at least one side to be kept off the scoresheet, Vitoria to score first, and the exact scoreline of 1-0.
What we got wrong
The most significant misstep of Matchweek 26 came in Corinthians' clash with Chapecoense-sc. The model anticipated a home victory, relying on Chapecoense-sc's status at the bottom of the table and their complete lack of away wins this season. While the data noted that Corinthians were without five regular starters, the forecast underestimated how drastically those absences would undermine their usual home control.
Similarly, the model misread the dynamic between Internacional and Santos. Leaning cautiously toward the hosts based on territorial control, the forecast projected a low-scoring Internacional win. Instead, Santos' sharper cutting edge in the final third dictated the match, producing five goals and dismantling our call for fewer than 2.5 goals.
Another miss occurred with Coritiba, who hosted Mirassol. The model favoured the hosts despite the known absence of their midfield anchor Jacy and full-back Tiago Coser. Mirassol were on a five-match winless slide, but the structural damage to Coritiba's spine proved fatal to their chances, allowing the visitors to take all three points.
Matchweek 26 highlighted the immense weight of squad availability in Brazil's Serie A. Teams that were heavily depleted found their traditional home advantages erased by desperate opposition. Evaluating the true impact of missing starters will remain crucial to reading the shifting landscape of the league as the season progresses.
