The Eredivisie delivered a goal-laden Matchweek 3, headlined by emphatic five-goal hauls for both Ajax and PSV Eindhoven, while our forecasting model enjoyed a solid if unspectacular run across the nine fixtures.
How our forecasts did
The model's strongest performance came on the first team to score calls, where seven of the nine projections landed successfully. It also saw moderate success elsewhere, with six of the nine graded calls proving correct for match result, win or draw, and total goals. The both teams to score category was trickier, yielding four correct calls from nine, but the lowest point was the exact scoreline topic, which failed to find a single correct result across the entire round. Half-time and full-time projections finished with five correct outcomes from nine.
Results
Saturday, August 22
Fortuna Sittard 0-2 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar continued their commanding start to the campaign by shutting out Fortuna Sittard, landing the model's firm projection for an away win.
Sparta Rotterdam 3-3 Utrecht A high-scoring draw played out between Sparta Rotterdam and Utrecht as the visitors secured a point. The model had made a cautious call for a Sparta Rotterdam win, which fell short, though it correctly projected a high-scoring affair with both teams finding the net.
Heerenveen 0-2 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle secured an unexpected away victory to bounce back from their poor early form. The model had projected a firm Heerenveen win, making this one of the bigger misses of the round.
Sunday, August 23
GO Ahead Eagles 3-1 ADO Den Haag GO Ahead Eagles deepened the crisis for ADO Den Haag with a comfortable victory. The model's firm call for a home win was on the mark, as was its projection for more than 2.5 goals in the match.
PSV Eindhoven 5-1 Groningen PSV Eindhoven extended their dominant head-to-head record against Groningen with a resounding victory. The model firmly backed a PSV win and more than 2.5 goals, both of which landed with ease.
Cambuur 2-5 Feyenoord Feyenoord added to Cambuur's miserable return to the top flight, comfortably securing the three points. The model's firm call for an away victory proved correct, though the expectation that at least one side would be kept off the scoresheet was undone.
Tuesday, September 8
NEC Nijmegen 2-2 Excelsior NEC Nijmegen and Excelsior shared four goals in a tightly contested draw. The model had made a cautious call for a home win, which missed, but correctly projected that both teams would score and the total goals threshold would be crossed.
Wednesday, September 9
Twente 1-0 Telstar Twente edged past Telstar to secure a narrow home victory. The firm call for a Twente win landed, but the model incorrectly anticipated a higher-scoring encounter.
Tuesday, September 15
Ajax 5-1 Willem II Ajax ruthlessly dismantled Willem II to cap off the round. The model confidently projected an Ajax win, a high-scoring game, and both teams scoring, all of which landed as expected.
What we got wrong
The biggest misstep of Matchweek 3 came at Heerenveen, where the model firmly expected a home victory against PEC Zwolle. Heerenveen had entered the contest unbeaten and with a clean sheet at home, while PEC Zwolle arrived in dire form having conceded five times in their first two outings. The data pointed heavily to a comfortable Heerenveen win, but Zwolle defied the underlying numbers to secure a 2-0 triumph, completely upending our first team to score and match result projections.
Elsewhere, the model struggled to anticipate the resilience of struggling visitors. It cautiously backed Sparta Rotterdam to defeat a Utrecht side that had shipped six goals in two games, only for Utrecht to battle to a 3-3 draw. Similarly, the model anticipated a winner in the clash between NEC Nijmegen and Excelsior, reading too much into NEC's recent head-to-head dominance rather than predicting the 2-2 stalemate that ultimately unfolded.
Matchweek 3 leaves the traditional heavyweights asserting their authority, with AZ Alkmaar, PSV, Feyenoord, and Ajax all showcasing their attacking firepower, while the likes of Cambuur and ADO Den Haag are left searching for answers at the wrong end of the table.
